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Uncertainty quantification is a central challenge in reliable and trustworthy machine learning. Naive measures such as last-layer scores are well-known to yield overconfident estimates in the context of overparametrized neural networks.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-24 Lucas Clarté , Bruno Loureiro , Florent Krzakala , Lenka Zdeborová

Hypothesis testing in singular statistical models is often regarded as inherently problematic due to non-identifiability and degeneracy of the Fisher information. We show that the fundamental obstruction to testing in such models is not…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-02 Sean Plummer

Bayesian inference affords scientists with powerful tools for testing hypotheses. One of these tools is the Bayes factor, which indexes the extent to which support for one hypothesis over another is updated after seeing the data. Part of…

Computation · Statistics 2018-12-11 Thomas J. Faulkenberry

We present an experimental illustration on the quantum sensitivity of decision making machinery. In the decision making process, we consider the role of available information, say hint, whether it influences the optimal choices. To the end,…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2019-05-15 Joong-Sung Lee , Jeongho Bang , Jinhyoung Lee , Kwang-Geol Lee

Kernel methods are one of the mainstays of machine learning, but the problem of kernel learning remains challenging, with only a few heuristics and very little theory. This is of particular importance in methods based on estimation of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-03 Seth Flaxman , Dino Sejdinovic , John P. Cunningham , Sarah Filippi

In this article a novel approach for training deep neural networks using Bayesian techniques is presented. The Bayesian methodology allows for an easy evaluation of model uncertainty and additionally is robust to overfitting. These are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-03 Konstantin Posch , Jürgen Pilz

We describe a hierarchical Bayesian approach for inference about a parameter $\theta$ lower-bounded by $\alpha$ with uncertain $\alpha$, derive some basic identities for posterior analysis about $(\theta,\alpha)$, and provide illustrations…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-06-08 Éric Marchand , Theodoros Nicoleris

Inferences about hypotheses are ubiquitous in the cognitive sciences. Bayes factors provide one general way to compare different hypotheses by their compatibility with the observed data. Those quantifications can then also be used to choose…

Bayesian inference provides a principled probabilistic framework for quantifying uncertainty by updating beliefs based on prior knowledge and observed data through Bayes' theorem. In Bayesian deep learning, neural network weights are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Yijie Zhang

The ability to efficiently infer system parameters is essential in any signal-processing task that requires fast operation. Dealing with quantum systems, a serious challenge arises due to substantial growth of the underlying Hilbert space…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-04-23 Lewis A. Clark , Jan Kolodynski

This paper develops a methodology for robust Bayesian inference through the use of disparities. Metrics such as Hellinger distance and negative exponential disparity have a long history in robust estimation in frequentist inference. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-11-28 Giles Hooker , Anand Vidyashankar

The problem of quantum state discrimination between two wave functions of a particle in a square well potential is considered. The optimal minimum-error probability for the state discrimination is known to be given by the Helstrom bound. A…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2010-10-26 Bernhard K. Meister

In this paper we consider the problem of multiple testing when the hypotheses are dependent. In most of the existing literature, either Bayesian or non-Bayesian, the decision rules mainly focus on the validity of the test procedure rather…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-10 Noirrit K. Chandra , Sourabh Bhattacharya

If the probability distribution model aims to approximate the hidden mother distribution, it is imperative to establish a useful criterion for the resemblance between the mother and the model distributions. This study proposes a criterion…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-13 Yo Sheena

Algorithms are now routinely used to make consequential decisions that affect human lives. Examples include college admissions, medical interventions or law enforcement. While algorithms empower us to harness all information hidden in vast…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-10 Bahar Taskesen , Jose Blanchet , Daniel Kuhn , Viet Anh Nguyen

A staple of Bayesian model comparison and hypothesis testing, Bayes factors are often used to quantify the relative predictive performance of two rival hypotheses. The computation of Bayes factors can be challenging, however, and this has…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-19 František Bartoš , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

The laws of quantum mechanics place fundamental limits on the accuracy of measurements and therefore on the estimation of unknown parameters of a quantum system. In this work, we prove lower bounds on the size of confidence regions reported…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2014-12-23 Michael Walter , Joseph M. Renes

Detecting the presence of multiple incoherent sources is a fundamental and challenging task for quantum imaging, especially within sub-Rayleigh region. In this paper, the discrimination of one-versus-two point-like incoherent sources in…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-11-06 Jian-Dong Zhang , Mei-Ming Zhang , Chuang Li , Shuai Wang

Good large sample performance is typically a minimum requirement of any model selection criterion. This article focuses on the consistency property of the Bayes factor, a commonly used model comparison tool, which has experienced a recent…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-07-04 Siddhartha Chib , Todd A. Kuffner

Binary discrimination between well-defined signal and background datasets is a problem of fundamental importance in particle physics. With detailed event simulation and the advent of extensive deep learning tools, identification of the…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2024-02-06 Andrew J. Larkoski
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