Related papers: On Semi-parametric Bernstein-von Mises Theorems fo…
Flow network models can capture the underlying physics and operational constraints of many networked systems including the power grid and transportation and water networks. However, analyzing reliability of systems using computationally…
This paper develops a performant Bayesian approach to conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation in regression discontinuity designs (RDD), an increasingly prevalent form of quasi-experiment that facilitates causal inference.…
Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) is a regression technique developed by Chipman et al. (2008). Its usefulness in standard regression settings has been clearly demonstrated, but it has not been applied to time series analysis as…
A key challenge for modern Bayesian statistics is how to perform scalable inference of posterior distributions. To address this challenge, variational Bayes (VB) methods have emerged as a popular alternative to the classical Markov chain…
Count-compositional data arise in many different fields, including high-throughput sequencing experiments, ecological surveys, and palaeoclimate studies, where a common, important goal is to understand how covariates relate to the observed…
We consider an infinite-dimensional Gaussian regression model, equipped with a high-dimensional Gaussian prior. We address the frequentist validity of posterior credible sets for a vector of linear functionals. We specify conditions for a…
General circulation models (GCMs) are essential tools for climate studies. Such climate models may have varying accuracy across the input domain, but no model is uniformly best. One can improve climate model prediction performance by…
Individualized treatment rules (ITR) can improve health outcomes by recognizing that patients may respond differently to treatment and assigning therapy with the most desirable predicted outcome for each individual. Flexible and efficient…
Explainable boosting machines (EBMs) are popular "glass-box" models that learn a set of univariate functions using boosting trees. These achieve explainability through visualizations of each feature's effect. However, unlike linear model…
This paper introduces BART-RDD, a sum-of-trees regression model built around a novel regression tree prior, which incorporates the special covariate structure of regression discontinuity designs. Specifically, the tree splitting process is…
We propose a double robust Bayesian inference procedure on the average treatment effect (ATE) under unconfoundedness. For our new Bayesian approach, we first adjust the prior distributions of the conditional mean functions, and then correct…
This paper studies semiparametric Bayesian inference for the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) within the difference-in-differences (DiD) research design. We propose two new Bayesian methods with frequentist validity. The first…
We present a new package in R implementing Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). The package introduces many new features for data analysis using BART such as variable selection, interaction detection, model diagnostic plots,…
We propose a semiparametric Bayesian methodology for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) within the potential outcomes framework using observational data with high-dimensional nuisance parameters. Our method introduces a Bayesian…
In the recent Bayesian nonparametric literature, many examples have been reported in which Bayesian estimators and posterior distributions do not achieve the optimal convergence rate, indicating that the Bernstein-von Mises theorem does not…
I prove a semiparametric Bernstein-von Mises theorem for a partially linear regression model with independent priors for the low-dimensional parameter of interest and the infinite-dimensional nuisance parameters. My result avoids a…
Regression discontinuity designs (RDD) are widely used for causal inference. In many empirical applications, treatment effects vary substantially with covariates, and ignoring such heterogeneity can lead to misleading conclusions, which…
This paper develops a novel stochastic tree ensemble method for nonlinear regression, which we refer to as XBART, short for Accelerated Bayesian Additive Regression Trees. By combining regularization and stochastic search strategies from…
In this paper, we study the asymptotic posterior distribution of linear functionals of the density. In particular, we give general conditions to obtain a semiparametric version of the Bernstein-Von Mises theorem. We then apply this general…
Ensembles of decision trees are a useful tool for obtaining for obtaining flexible estimates of regression functions. Examples of these methods include gradient boosted decision trees, random forests, and Bayesian CART. Two potential…