Related papers: Efficient and minimal length parametric conformal …

If you are predicting the label $y$ of a new object with $\hat y$, how confident are you that $y = \hat y$? Conformal prediction methods provide an elegant framework for answering such question by building a $100 (1 - \alpha)\%$ confidence…

In regression, conformal prediction is a general methodology to construct prediction intervals in a distribution-free manner. Although conformal prediction guarantees strong statistical property for predictive inference, its inherent…

We develop adaptive discretization algorithms for locally optimal experimental design of nonlinear prediction models. With these algorithms, we refine and improve a pertinent state-of-the-art algorithm in various respects. We establish…

Conformal prediction provides prediction sets with coverage guarantees. The informativeness of conformal prediction depends on its efficiency, typically quantified by the expected size of the prediction set. Prior work on the efficiency of…

The generalized linear models (GLMs) are widely used in statistical analysis and the related design issues are undoubtedly challenging. The state-of-the-art works mostly apply to design criteria on the estimates of regression coefficients.…

We develop scalable methods for producing conformal Bayesian predictive intervals with finite sample calibration guarantees. Bayesian posterior predictive distributions, $p(y \mid x)$, characterize subjective beliefs on outcomes of…

We propose a new sparse estimation method, termed MIC (Minimum approximated Information Criterion), for generalized linear models (GLM) in fixed dimensions. What is essentially involved in MIC is the approximation of the $\ell_0$-norm with…

Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) and Single Index Models (SIMs) provide powerful generalizations of linear regression, where the target variable is assumed to be a (possibly unknown) 1-dimensional function of a linear predictor. In general,…

Linear mixed models (LMMs), which incorporate fixed and random effects, are key tools for analyzing heterogeneous data, such as in personalized medicine. Nowadays, this type of data is increasingly wide, sometimes containing thousands of…

Conformal prediction is a powerful tool to generate uncertainty sets with guaranteed coverage using any predictive model, under the assumption that the training and test data are i.i.d.. Recently, it has been shown that adversarial examples…

We developed a statistical inference method applicable to a broad range of generalized linear models (GLMs) in high-dimensional settings, where the number of unknown coefficients scales proportionally with the sample size. Although a…

In clinical applications, the utility of segmentation models is often based on the accuracy of derived downstream metrics such as organ size, rather than by the pixel-level accuracy of the segmentation masks themselves. Thus, uncertainty…

Modern generative and vision-language models (VLMs) are increasingly used in scientific and medical decision support, where predicted probabilities must be both accurate and well calibrated. Despite strong empirical results with moderate…

Statistical evaluation aims to estimate the generalization performance of a model using held-out i.i.d.\ test data sampled from the ground-truth distribution. In supervised learning settings such as classification, performance metrics such…

Current instance segmentation models achieve high performance on average predictions, but lack principled uncertainty quantification: their outputs are not calibrated, and there is no guarantee that a predicted mask is close to the ground…

Given a sequence of observable variables $\{(x_1, y_1), \ldots, (x_n, y_n)\}$, the conformal prediction method estimates a confidence set for $y_{n+1}$ given $x_{n+1}$ that is valid for any finite sample size by merely assuming that the…

This work introduces a method to select linear functional measurements of a vector-valued time series optimized for forecasting distant time-horizons. By formulating and solving the problem of sequential linear measurement design as an…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a Bayesian machine learning approach widely used to construct surrogate models for the uncertainty quantification of computer simulation codes in industrial applications. It provides both a mean predictor and an…

Conformal methods create prediction bands that control average coverage assuming solely i.i.d. data. Although the literature has mostly focused on prediction intervals, more general regions can often better represent uncertainty. For…

While the use of deep learning in drug discovery is gaining increasing attention, the lack of methods to compute reliable errors in prediction for Neural Networks prevents their application to guide decision making in domains where…