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We provide a general condition under which e-variables in the form of a simple-vs.-simple likelihood ratio exist when the null hypothesis is a composite, multivariate exponential family. Such `simple' e-variables are easy to compute and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-02 Peter Grünwald , Tyron Lardy , Yunda Hao , Shaul K. Bar-Lev , Martijn de Jong

The exponential family is well known in machine learning and statistical physics as the maximum entropy distribution subject to a set of observed constraints, while the geometric mixture path is common in MCMC methods such as annealed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-18 Rob Brekelmans , Frank Nielsen , Alireza Makhzani , Aram Galstyan , Greg Ver Steeg

In this paper a useful subfamily of the exponential family has been considered. The ML estimation based on upper record values has been calculated for the parameter, Cumulative Density Function, and Probability Density Function of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-11-06 S. D. Gore , S. Hosseini , P. Nasiri

Inspired by applications to theories of coding and communication in networks of nervous tissue, we study maximum entropy distributions on weighted graphs with a given expected degree sequence. These distributions are characterized by…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-12-18 Christopher Hillar , Andre Wibisono

Distributional regression aims to find the best candidate in a given parametric family of conditional distributions to model a given dataset. As each candidate in the distribution family can be identified by the corresponding distribution…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-18 Gitte Kremling , Gerhard Dikta

We propose a new class of semiparametric exponential family graphical models for the analysis of high dimensional mixed data. Different from the existing mixed graphical models, we allow the nodewise conditional distributions to be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-10-16 Zhuoran Yang , Yang Ning , Han Liu

We consider the problem of upper bounding the expected log-likelihood sub-optimality of the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE), or a conjugate maximum a posteriori (MAP) for an exponential family, in a non-asymptotic way. Surprisingly, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-15 Rémi Le Priol , Frederik Kunstner , Damien Scieur , Simon Lacoste-Julien

The notion of multivariate total positivity has proved to be useful in finance and psychology but may be too restrictive in other applications. In this paper we propose a concept of local association, where highly connected components in a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-10 Steffen Lauritzen , Piotr Zwiernik

The methods of statistical physics are widely used for modelling complex networks. Building on the recently proposed Equilibrium Expectation approach, we derive a simple and efficient algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of…

Computation · Statistics 2020-02-12 Alexander Borisenko , Maksym Byshkin , Alessandro Lomi

When in a full exponential family the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) does not exist, the MLE may exist in the Barndorff-Nielsen completion of the family. We propose a practical algorithm for finding the MLE in the completion based on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-01-06 Charles J. Geyer

Maximum likelihood estimators are used extensively to estimate unknown parameters of stochastic trait evolution models on phylogenetic trees. Although the MLE has been proven to converge to the true value in the independent-sample case, we…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-11-26 Lam Si Tung Ho , Vu Dinh , Frederick A. Matsen , Marc A. Suchard

We introduce a new family of multiple orthogonal polynomials satisfying orthogonality conditions with respect to two weights $(w_1,w_2)$ on the positive real line, with $w_1(x)=x^\alpha e^{-x}$ the gamma density and $w_2(x) = x^\alpha…

Classical Analysis and ODEs · Mathematics 2023-08-15 Walter Van Assche , Thomas Wolfs

This article studies exponential families $\mathcal{E}$ on finite sets such that the information divergence $D(P\|\mathcal{E})$ of an arbitrary probability distribution from $\mathcal{E}$ is bounded by some constant $D>0$. A particular…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-06-18 Johannes Rauh

We study the consistency and optimality of the maximum marginal likelihood estimate (MMLE) in the hyperparameter inference for large-degree-of-freedom models. We perform main analyses within the exponential family, where the natural…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-05-27 Dye SK Sato , Yukitoshi Fukahata

We are concerned here with the likelihood ratio statistics in two exponential random graph models -- the $\beta$-model and the Bradley-Terry model, in which the degree sequence on an undirected graph and the out-degree sequence on a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-03 Ting Yan , Yuanzhang Li , Jinfeng Xu , Yaning Yang , Ji Zhu

Combining discrete probability distributions and combinatorial optimization problems with neural network components has numerous applications but poses several challenges. We propose Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (I-MLE), a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-28 Mathias Niepert , Pasquale Minervini , Luca Franceschi

Rank-order relational data, in which each actor ranks the others according to some criterion, often arise from sociometric measurements of judgment (e.g., self-reported interpersonal interaction) or preference (e.g., relative liking). We…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-11 Pavel N. Krivitsky , Carter T. Butts

Asymptotics of the normalizing constant is computed for a class of one parameter exponential families on permutations which includes Mallows model with Spearmans's Footrule and Spearman's Rank Correlation Statistic. The MLE, and a…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-05-05 Sumit Mukherjee

Limits of densities belonging to an exponential family appear in many applications, {e.g.} Gibbs models in Statistical Physics, relaxed combinatorial optimization, coding theory, critical likelihood computations, Bayes priors with singular…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-12-06 Luigi Malagò , Giovanni Pistone

This thesis studies high-dimensional, continuous-valued pairwise Markov Random Fields. We are particularly interested in approximating pairwise densities whose logarithm belongs to a Sobolev space. For this problem we propose the method of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-06-12 Eric Janofsky