Related papers: Rough volatility of Bitcoin
The dynamics of prices in financial markets has been studied intensively both experimentally (data analysis) and theoretically (models). Nevertheless, a complete stochastic characterization of volatility is still lacking. What it is well…
The cryptocurrency market presents both significant investment opportunities and higher risks relative to traditional financial assets. This study examines the tail behavior of daily returns for two leading cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and…
Unlike price fluctuations, the temporal structure of cryptocurrency trading has seldom been a subject of systematic study. In order to fill this gap, we analyse detrended correlations of the price returns, the average number of trades in…
We study the statistical properties of volatility---a measure of how much the market is likely to fluctuate. We estimate the volatility by the local average of the absolute price changes. We analyze (a) the S&P 500 stock index for the…
We consider a class of stochastic processes with rough stochastic volatility, examples of which include the rough Bergomi and rough Stein-Stein model, that have gained considerable importance in quantitative finance. A basic question for…
Inspired by the activity signature introduced by Todorov and Tauchen (2010), which was used to measure the activity of a semimartingale, this paper introduces the roughness signature function. The paper illustrates how it can be used to…
Single index financial market models cannot account for the empirically observed complex interactions between shares in a market. We describe a multi-share financial market model and compare characteristics of the volatility, that is the…
In this paper we study the possible microscopic origin of heavy-tailed probability density distributions for the price variation of financial instruments. We extend the standard log-normal process to include another random component in the…
We test various volatility models using the Bitcoin spot price series. Our models include HIST, EMA ARCH, GARCH, and EGARCH, models. Both of our in-sample-fit and out-of-sample-forecast results suggest that GARCH and EGARCH models perform…
The volatility characterizes the amplitude of price return fluctuations. It is a central magnitude in finance closely related to the risk of holding a certain asset. Despite its popularity on trading floors, the volatility is unobservable…
Rough volatility models are very appealing because of their remarkable fit of both historical and implied volatilities. However, due to the non-Markovian and non-semimartingale nature of the volatility process, there is no simple way to…
We study the persistence properties of a fractional Brownian motion whose Hurst exponent is a random variable instead of a fixed constant. For each fixed $H \in (0,1)$, it is well known that the persistence probability of an FBM below a…
This paper studies the forecasting ability of cryptocurrency time series. This study is about the four most capitalized cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Ripple. Different Bayesian models are compared, including models with…
Trade prices of about 1000 New York Stock Exchange-listed stocks are studied at one-minute time resolution over the continuous five year period 2018--2022. For each stock, in dollar-volume-weighted transaction time, the discrepancy from a…
Investors commonly exhibit the disposition effect - the irrational tendency to sell their winning investments and hold onto their losing ones. While this phenomenon has been observed in many traditional markets, it remains unclear whether…
We empirically examine the intraday return- and volatility-forecasting power of on-chain flow data for Bitcoin(BTC), Ethereum(ETH), and Tether(USDT). We find ETH net inflows to strongly predict ETH returns and volatility in the 2017-2023…
Recent empirical studies suggest that the volatilities associated with financial time series exhibit short-range correlations. This entails that the volatility process is very rough and its autocorrelation exhibits sharp decay at the…
The problem of non-stationarity in financial markets is discussed and related to the dynamic nature of price volatility. A new measure is proposed for estimation of the current asset volatility. A simple and illustrative explanation is…
While relevant stylized facts are observed for Bitcoin markets, we find a distinct property for the scaling behavior of the cumulative return distribution. For various assets, the tail index $\mu$ of the cumulative return distribution…
This paper investigates the asymptotic behavior of suitably time-modulated Hawkes processes with heavy-tailed kernels in a nearly unstable regime. We show that, under appropriate scaling, both the intensity processes and the rescaled Hawkes…