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Cryptocoins (i.e., Bitcoin, Ether, Litecoin) are tradable digital assets. Ownerships of cryptocoins are registered on distributed ledgers (i.e., blockchains). Secure encryption techniques guarantee the security of the transactions…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2024-09-06 Pasquale De Rosa , Pascal Felber , Valerio Schiavoni

This study evaluates the performance of 41 machine learning models, including 21 classifiers and 20 regressors, in predicting Bitcoin prices for algorithmic trading. By examining these models under various market conditions, we highlight…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2024-07-29 Abdul Jabbar , Syed Qaisar Jalil

We study the problem of the intraday short-term volume forecasting in cryptocurrency exchange markets. The predictions are built by using transaction and order book data from different markets where the exchange takes place.…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2020-12-03 Nino Antulov-Fantulin , Tian Guo , Fabrizio Lillo

This study investigates the impact of data source diversity on the performance of cryptocurrency forecasting models by integrating various data categories, including technical indicators, on-chain metrics, sentiment and interest metrics,…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-07-16 Giorgos Demosthenous , Chryssis Georgiou , Eliada Polydorou

Forecasting cryptocurrencies as a financial issue is crucial as it provides investors with possible financial benefits. A small improvement in forecasting performance can lead to increased profitability; therefore, obtaining a realistic…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-05-01 Hulusi Mehmet Tanrikulu , Hakan Pabuccu

As transaction fees skyrocket today, blockchains become increasingly expensive, hurting their adoption in broader applications. This work tackles the saving of transaction fees for economic blockchain applications. The key insight is that…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2022-10-11 Yibo Wang , Yuzhe Tang

We use the database leak of Mt. Gox exchange to analyze the dynamics of the price of bitcoin from June 2011 to November 2013. This gives us a rare opportunity to study an emerging retail-focused, highly speculative and unregulated market…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-06-27 Olivier Scaillet , Adrien Treccani , Christopher Trevisan

Hypothesis of Market Efficiency is an important concept for the investors across the globe holding diversified portfolios. With the world economy getting more integrated day by day, more people are investing in global emerging markets. This…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-09-14 Oleg Malafeyev , Achal Awasthi , Kaustubh S. Kambekar

Modern mainstream financial theory is underpinned by the efficient market hypothesis, which posits the rapid incorporation of relevant information into asset pricing. Limited prior studies in the operational research literature have…

Applications · Statistics 2023-09-07 Ben Moews

It has been assumed that arbitrage profits are not possible in efficient markets, because future prices are not predictable. Here we show that predictability alone is not a sufficient measure of market efficiency. We instead propose to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-10 R. Rothenstein , K. Pawelzik

This paper discusses the dynamics of intraday prices of twelve cryptocurrencies during last months' boom and bust. The importance of this study lies on the extended coverage of the cryptoworld, accounting for more than 90\% of the total…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-08-07 Aurelio F. Bariviera , Luciano Zunino , Osvaldo A. Rosso

Recently, cryptocurrencies have attracted a growing interest from investors, practitioners and researchers. Nevertheless, few studies have focused on the predictability of them. In this paper we propose a new and comprehensive study about…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-04-27 Roy Cerqueti , Massimiliano Giacalone , Raffaele Mattera

We address the question of market efficiency using the Minority Game (MG) model. First we show that removing unrealistic features of the MG leads to models which reproduce a scaling behavior close to what is observed in real markets. In…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-02 D. Challet , A. Chessa , M. Marsili , Y. -C. Zhang

In this paper, we explore some stylized facts of the Bitcoin market using the BTC-USD exchange rate time series of historical intraday data from 2013 to 2020. Bitcoin presents some very peculiar idiosyncrasies, like the absence of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-09-04 F. N. M. de Sousa Filho , J. N. Silva , M. A. Bertella , E. Brigatti

The study proposes a quote-driven predictive automated market maker (AMM) platform with on-chain custody and settlement functions, alongside off-chain predictive reinforcement learning capabilities to improve liquidity provision of…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2023-01-27 Tristan Lim

Bitcoin is considered the most valuable currency in the world. Besides being highly valuable, its value has also experienced a steep increase, from around 1 dollar in 2010 to around 18000 in 2017. Then, in recent years, it has attracted…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2019-04-11 Amin Azari

The cryptocurrency market is unique on many levels: Very volatile, frequently changing market structure, emerging and vanishing of cryptocurrencies on a daily level. Following its development became a difficult task with the success of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-09-22 Simon Trimborn , Wolfgang Karl Härdle

Markets efficiency implies that the stock returns are intrinsically unpredictable, a property that makes markets comparable to random number generators. We present a novel methodology to investigate ultra-high frequency financial data and…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-11-24 Silvia Onofri , Andrey Shternshis , Stefano Marmi

Standard approaches to the theory of financial markets are based on equilibrium and efficiency. Here we develop an alternative based on concepts and methods developed by biologists, in which the wealth invested in a financial strategy is…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-10-12 Maarten P. Scholl , Anisoara Calinescu , J. Doyne Farmer

In this paper we introduce a completely continuous and time-variate model of the evolution of market limit orders based on the existence, uniqueness, and regularity of the solutions to a type of stochastic partial differential equations…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2012-10-29 Zhi Zheng , Richard B. Sowers