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Markov chains in random environments (MCREs) have recently attracted renewed interest, as these processes naturally arise in many applications, such as econometrics and machine learning. Although specific asymptotic results, such as the law…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-22 Attila Lovas , Lionel Truquet

Markov Chains with variable length are useful stochastic models for data compression that avoid the curse of dimensionality faced by that full Markov Chains. In this paper we introduce a Variable Length Markov Chain whose transition…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-01 Adriano Zanin Zambom , Seonjin Kim , Nancy Lopes Garcia

We consider a continuous time Markov chain on a countable state space and prove a joint large deviation principle for the empirical measure and the empirical flow, which accounts for the total number of jumps between pairs of states. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-01-19 Lorenzo Bertini , Alessandra Faggionato , Davide Gabrielli

In this paper we present elementary computations for some Markov modulated counting processes, also called counting processes with regime switching. Regime switching has become an increasingly popular concept in many branches of science. In…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-02-27 Michel Mandjes , Peter Spreij

We consider the higher-order Markov Chain, and characterize the second order Markov chains admitting every probability distribution vector as a stationary vector. The result is used to construct Markov chains of higher-order with the same…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-02-25 Chi-Kwong Li , Shixiao Zhang

Gradient information on the sampling distribution can be used to reduce the variance of Monte Carlo estimators via Stein's method. An important application is that of estimating an expectation of a test function along the sample path of a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-12-29 Chris J. Oates , Jon Cockayne , François-Xavier Briol , Mark Girolami

Simulated annealing - moving from a tractable distribution to a distribution of interest via a sequence of intermediate distributions - has traditionally been used as an inexact method of handling isolated modes in Markov chain samplers.…

Computational Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Radford M. Neal

We establish general theorems quantifying the notion of recurrence --- through an estimation of the moments of passage times --- for irreducible continuous-time Markov chains on countably infinite state spaces. Sharp conditions of…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-15 Mikhail Menshikov , Dimitri Petritis

We consider Markov chains on general state spaces in stationary random environment which are defined by a random mapping that is contractive up to a bounded perturbation. We prove their convergence to a limiting law, providing convergence…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-18 Attila Lovas , Miklós Rásonyi , Lionel Truquet

We survey information-theoretic approaches to the reduction of Markov chains. Our survey is structured in two parts: The first part considers Markov chain coarse graining, which focuses on projecting the Markov chain to a process on a…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-05-02 Bernhard C. Geiger

The purpose of this paper is to ensure the conditions of G\"artner-Ellis Theorem for evaluations of the empirical measure. We show that up-to-date conditions for ensuring the convergence to a quasi-stationary distribution can be applied…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-04-21 Aurélien Velleret

Thermalization is one of the most important phenomena in statistical physics. Often, the transition probabilities between different states in the phase space is or can be approximated by constants. In this case, the system can be described…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-09-13 Francesco Caravelli

Markov chains are a class of probabilistic models that have achieved widespread application in the quantitative sciences. This is in part due to their versatility, but is compounded by the ease with which they can be probed analytically.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-18 Eddie Seabrook , Laurenz Wiskott

The purpose of this paper is to introduce a notion of causality in Markov decision processes based on the probability-raising principle and to analyze its algorithmic properties. The latter includes algorithms for checking cause-effect…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2022-01-24 Christel Baier , Florian Funke , Jakob Piribauer , Robin Ziemek

This review paper provides an introduction of Markov chains and their convergence rates which is an important and interesting mathematical topic which also has important applications for very widely used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-09-03 Yu Hang Jiang , Tong Liu , Zhiya Lou , Jeffrey S. Rosenthal , Shanshan Shangguan , Fei Wang , Zixuan Wu

This paper examines the impact of discrete marginal distributions on copula-based Markov chains. We present results on mixing and parameter estimation for a copula-based Markov chain model with Bernoulli($p$) marginal distribution and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-16 Mathias N. Muia , Martial Longla

The paper analyzes the performance of tandem network of polling queue with setups. For a system with two-products and two-stations, we propose a new approach based on a partially-collapsible state-space characterization to reduce…

Performance · Computer Science 2022-02-22 Ravi Suman , Ananth Krishnamurthy

We develop a practical approach to establish the stability, that is, the recurrence in a given set, of a large class of controlled Markov chains. These processes arise in various areas of applied science and encompass important numerical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-02-02 Christophe Andrieu , Vladislav B. Tadić , Matti Vihola

We present a new algorithm for the statistical model checking of Markov chains with respect to unbounded temporal properties, such as reachability and full linear temporal logic. The main idea is that we monitor each simulation run on the…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2016-03-04 Przemysław Daca , Thomas A. Henzinger , Jan Křetínský , Tatjana Petrov

We describe an exact test of the null hypothesis that a Markov chain is nth order versus the alternate hypothesis that it is $(n+1)$-th order. The procedure does not rely on asymptotic properties, but instead builds up the test statistic…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-02-07 Shawn D. Pethel , Daniel W. Hahs