Related papers: Can we trust Bayesian uncertainty quantification f…

Bayesian inference promises a framework for principled uncertainty quantification of neural network predictions. Barriers to adoption include the difficulty of fully characterizing posterior distributions on network parameters and the…

We develop a generative model-based approach to Bayesian inverse problems, such as image reconstruction from noisy and incomplete images. Our framework addresses two common challenges of Bayesian reconstructions: 1) It makes use of complex,…

The formalism of quantum estimation theory with a specific focus on classical data postprocessing is applied to a two-level system driven by an external gyrating magnetic field. We employed both Bayesian and frequentist approaches to…

Uncertainty quantification is essential when dealing with ill-conditioned inverse problems due to the inherent nonuniqueness of the solution. Bayesian approaches allow us to determine how likely an estimation of the unknown parameters is…

The accuracy of Bayesian inference can be negatively affected by the use of inaccurate forward models. In the case of gravitational-wave inference, accurate but computationally expensive waveform models are sometimes substituted with faster…

We consider the estimation of a sparse parameter vector from measurements corrupted by white Gaussian noise. Our focus is on unbiased estimation as a setting under which the difficulty of the problem can be quantified analytically. We show…

Non-conservative uncertainty bounds are essential for making reliable predictions about latent functions from noisy data, and thus, a key enabler for safe learning-based control. In this domain, kernel methods such as Gaussian process…

The empirical Bayes $g$-modeling approach via the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) is widely used for large-scale estimation and inference in the normal means problem, yet theoretical guarantees for uncertainty…

In this work, we investigate Gaussian Processes indexed by multidimensional distributions. While directly constructing radial positive definite kernels based on the Wasserstein distance has been proven to be possible in the unidimensional…

Large-scale randomized experiments, sometimes called A/B tests, are increasingly prevalent in many industries. Though such experiments are often analyzed via frequentist $t$-tests, arguably such analyses are deficient: $p$-values are hard…

When modeling a probability distribution with a Bayesian network, we are faced with the problem of how to handle continuous variables. Most previous work has either solved the problem by discretizing, or assumed that the data are generated…

We propose a new, two-step empirical Bayes-type of approach for neural networks. We show in context of the nonparametric regression model that the procedure (up to a logarithmic factor) provides optimal recovery of the underlying functional…

A stationary Gaussian process is said to be long-range dependent (resp., anti-persistent) if its spectral density $f(\lambda)$ can be written as $f(\lambda)=|\lambda|^{-2d}g(|\lambda|)$, where $0<d<1/2$ (resp., $-1/2<d<0$), and $g$ is…

From the classical and influential works of Neal (1996), it is known that the infinite width scaling limit of a Bayesian neural network with one hidden layer is a Gaussian process, when the network weights have bounded prior variance.…

Nonparametric tests via kernel embedding of distributions have witnessed a great deal of practical successes in recent years. However, statistical properties of these tests are largely unknown beyond consistency against a fixed alternative.…

Being able to reliably assess not only the \emph{accuracy} but also the \emph{uncertainty} of models' predictions is an important endeavour in modern machine learning. Even if the model generating the data and labels is known, computing the…

In this paper, we present a comprehensive analysis of the posterior covariance field in Gaussian processes, with applications to the posterior covariance matrix. The analysis is based on the Gaussian prior covariance but the approach also…

We propose a data-driven approach to quantify the uncertainty of models constructed by kernel methods. Our approach minimizes the needed distributional assumptions, hence, instead of working with, for example, Gaussian processes or…

We analyze the prior that a Deep Gaussian Process with polynomial kernels induces. We observe that, even for relatively small depths, averaging effects occur within such a Deep Gaussian Process and that the prior can be analyzed and…

A method to reconstruct fields, source strengths and physical parameters based on Gaussian process regression is presented for the case where data are known to fulfill a given linear differential equation with localized sources. The…