Related papers: Can we trust Bayesian uncertainty quantification f…

Bayesian sparse factor models have proven useful for characterizing dependence in multivariate data, but scaling computation to large numbers of samples and dimensions is problematic. We propose expandable factor analysis for scalable…

Numerical relativity (NR) enables the study of physics in strong and dynamical gravitational fields and provides predictions for the gravitational-wave signals produced by merging black holes. Despite the impressive accuracy of modern…

We propose a robust inferential procedure for assessing uncertainties of parameter estimation in high-dimensional linear models, where the dimension $p$ can grow exponentially fast with the sample size $n$. Our method combines the…

This article presents an approach to Bayesian semiparametric inference for Gaussian multivariate response regression. We are motivated by various small and medium dimensional problems from the physical and social sciences. The statistical…

Providing non-conservative uncertainty quantification for function estimates derived from noisy observations remains a fundamental challenge in statistical machine learning, particularly for applications in safety-critical domains. In this…

Confirmation bias, the tendency to interpret information in a way that aligns with one's preconceptions, can profoundly impact scientific research, leading to conclusions that reflect the researcher's hypotheses even when the observational…

Challenges in multi-fidelity modeling relate to accuracy, uncertainty estimation and high-dimensionality. A novel additive structure is introduced in which the highest fidelity solution is written as a sum of the lowest fidelity solution…

We propose a novel kernel-based nonparametric two-sample test, employing the combined use of kernel mean and kernel covariance embedding. Our test builds on recent results showing how such combined embeddings map distinct probability…

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the covariance kernel and its eigenvalues and eigenfunctions from sparse, irregularly observed, noise corrupted and (possibly) correlated functional data. We present a method based on…

In classical Hawkes process, the baseline intensity and triggering kernel are assumed to be a constant and parametric function respectively, which limits the model flexibility. To generalize it, we present a fully Bayesian nonparametric…

When inferring parameters from a Gaussian-distributed data set by computing a likelihood, a covariance matrix is needed that describes the data errors and their correlations. If the covariance matrix is not known a priori, it may be…

The kernel exponential family is a rich class of distributions, which can be fit efficiently and with statistical guarantees by score matching. Being required to choose a priori a simple kernel such as the Gaussian, however, limits its…

In the Gaussian white noise model, we study the estimation of an unknown multidimensional function $f$ in the uniform norm by using kernel methods. The performances of procedures are measured by using the maxiset point of view: we determine…

Bayesian inference allows expressing the uncertainty of posterior belief under a probabilistic model given prior information and the likelihood of the evidence. Predominantly, the likelihood function is only implicitly established by a…

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are a versatile method that enables different approaches towards learning for dynamics and control. Gaussianity assumptions appear in two dimensions in GPs: The positive semi-definite kernel of the underlying…

Gaussian processes are arguably the most important class of spatiotemporal models within machine learning. They encode prior information about the modeled function and can be used for exact or approximate Bayesian learning. In many…

Divide-and-conquer methods use large-sample approximations to provide frequentist guarantees when each block of data is both small enough to facilitate efficient computation and large enough to support approximately valid inferences. When…

We consider nonparametric Bayesian inference in a multidimensional diffusion model with reflecting boundary conditions based on discrete high-frequency observations. We prove a general posterior contraction rate theorem in $L^2$-loss, which…

A reliable modeling of uncertain evidence in Bayesian networks based on a set-valued quantification is proposed. Both soft and virtual evidences are considered. We show that evidence propagation in this setup can be reduced to standard…

In a sparse stochastic block model with two communities of unequal sizes we derive two posterior concentration inequalities, that imply (1) posterior (almost-)exact recovery of the community structure under sparsity bounds comparable to…