Related papers: Can we trust Bayesian uncertainty quantification f…
Completely automatic and adaptive non-parametric inference is a pie in the sky. The frequentist approach, best exemplified by the kernel estimators, has excellent asymptotic characteristics but it is very sensitive to the choice of…
We investigate the frequentist coverage properties of Bayesian credible sets in a general, adaptive, nonparametric framework. It is well known that the construction of adaptive and honest confidence sets is not possible in general. To…
Gaussian processes are ubiquitous in machine learning, statistics, and applied mathematics. They provide a flexible modelling framework for approximating functions, whilst simultaneously quantifying uncertainty. However, this is only true…
The posterior distribution in a nonparametric inverse problem is shown to contract to the true parameter at a rate that depends on the smoothness of the parameter, and the smoothness and scale of the prior. Correct combinations of these…
As machine learning-based prediction systems are increasingly used in high-stakes situations, it is important to understand how such predictive models will perform upon deployment. Distribution-free uncertainty quantification techniques…
We study asymptotic frequentist coverage and approximately Gaussian properties of Bayes posterior credible sets in nonlinear inverse problems when a Gaussian prior is placed on the parameter of the PDE. The aim is to ensure valid…
Gaussian process regression is used throughout statistics and machine learning for prediction and uncertainty quantification. A Gaussian process is specified by its mean and covariance functions. Many covariance functions, including…
Bayesian inference and uncertainty quantification in a general class of non-linear inverse regression models is considered. Analytic conditions on the regression model $\{\mathscr G(\theta): \theta \in \Theta\}$ and on Gaussian process…
For estimating a lower bounded parametric function in the framework of Marchand and Strawderman (2006), we provide through a unified approach a class of Bayesian confidence intervals with credibility $1-\alpha$ and frequentist coverage…
We propose a frequentist testing procedure that maintains a defined coverage and is optimal in the sense that it gives maximal power to detect deviations from a null hypothesis when the alternative to the null hypothesis is sampled from a…
A powerful tool for the analysis of nonrandomized observational studies has been the potential outcomes model. Utilization of this framework allows analysts to estimate average treatment effects. This article considers the situation in…
Gaussian Processes (GP) are widely used for probabilistic modeling and inference for nonparametric regression. However, their computational complexity scales cubicly with the sample size rendering them unfeasible for large data sets. To…
Gaussian process modeling is a standard tool for building emulators for computer experiments, which are usually used to study deterministic functions, for example, a solution to a given system of partial differential equations. This work…
We introduce a Bayesian framework for inference with a supervised version of the Gaussian process latent variable model. The framework overcomes the high correlations between latent variables and hyperparameters by using an unbiased pseudo…
Variational autoencoders often assume isotropic Gaussian priors and mean-field posteriors, hence do not exploit structure in scenarios where we may expect similarity or consistency across latent variables. Gaussian process variational…
While neural networks have demonstrated impressive performance across various tasks, accurately quantifying uncertainty in their predictions is essential to ensure their trustworthiness and enable widespread adoption in critical systems.…
Nonparametric modeling approaches show very promising results in the area of system identification and control. A naturally provided model confidence is highly relevant for system-theoretical considerations to provide guarantees for…
Frequentist coverage of $(1-\alpha)$-highest posterior density (HPD) credible sets is studied in a signal plus noise model under a large class of noise distributions. We consider a specific class of spike-and-slab prior distributions.…
Gaussian processes are powerful, yet analytically tractable models for supervised learning. A Gaussian process is characterized by a mean function and a covariance function (kernel), which are determined by a model selection criterion. The…
We study the asymptotic frequentist coverage of credible sets based on a novel Bayesian approach for a multiple linear regression model under variable selection. We initially ignore the issue of variable selection, which allows us to put a…