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A simple, but ``classical``, stochastic model for epidemic spread in a finite, but large, population is studied. The progress of the epidemic can be divided into three different phases that requires different tools to analyse. Initially the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-05-29 Åke Svensson

Compartmental epidemic models with dynamics that evolve over a graph network have gained considerable importance in recent years but analysis of these models is in general difficult due to their complexity. In this paper, we develop two…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-05-31 Sei Zhen Khong , Lanlan Su

We consider an interacting particle system $(\eta_t)_{t\geq 0}$ with values in $\{0,1\}^{\mathbb{Z}}$, in which each vacant site becomes occupied with rate 1, while each connected component of occupied sites become vacant with rate equal to…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Xavier Bressaud , Nicolas Fournier

The vulnerability of an isolated network to cascades is fundamentally affected by its interactions with other networks. Motivated by failures cascading among electrical grids, we study the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model on two…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2010-10-11 Charles D. Brummitt , Raissa M. D'Souza , Elizabeth A. Leicht

Epidemic disease spreading is conventionally often modelled and analyzed by means of rate and diffusion equations, following the paradigms of well-controlled chemical reactions and diffusive dynamics in a test tube. Yet, serious worries…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-01-03 Klaus Kroy

Power-law-shaped avalanche-size distributions are widely used to probe for critical behavior in many different systems, particularly in neural networks. The definition of avalanche is ambiguous. Usually, theoretical avalanches are defined…

Biological Physics · Physics 2018-05-22 Mauricio Girardi-Schappo , Marcelo H. R. Tragtenberg

In presence of long range dispersal, epidemics spread in spatially disconnected regions known as clusters. Here, we characterize exactly their statistical properties in a solvable model, in both the supercritical (outbreak) and critical…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-09-05 Xiangyu Cao , Pierre Le Doussal , Alberto Rosso

The initial phase of an epidemic is often characterized by an exponential increase in the number of infected individuals. In this paper, we predict the exponential spreading rate of an epidemic on a complex network. We first find an…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-04-21 Samuel Cure , Florian G. Pflug , Simone Pigolotti

We perform an analytical sensitivity analysis for a model of a continuous-time branching process evolving on a fixed network. This allows us to determine the relative importance of the model parameters to the growth of the population on the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-09-08 Sophie Hautphenne , Gautier Krings , Jean-Charles Delvenne , Vincent D. Blondel

Diffusion processes in networks are increasingly used to model the spread of information and social influence. In several applications in computational sustainability such as the spread of wildlife, infectious diseases and traffic mobility…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2013-09-27 Akshat Kumar , Daniel Sheldon , Biplav Srivastava

Consider a system performing a continuous-time random walk on the integers, subject to catastrophes occurring at constant rate, and followed by exponentially-distributed repair times. After any repair the system starts anew from state zero.…

Elastic systems, such as magnetic domain walls, density waves, contact lines, and cracks, are all pinned by substrate disorder. When driven, they move via successive jumps called avalanches, with power law distributions of size, duration…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2015-06-22 Alexander Dobrinevski , Pierre Le Doussal , Kay Jörg Wiese

We propose a model for epidemic spreading on a finite complex network with a restriction to at most one contamination per time step. Because of a highly discrete character of the process, the analysis cannot use the continous approximation,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-07-23 Wojciech Ganczarek

A new class of probabilistic models for cascading failure propagation in interconnected systems is proposed. The models take into account important characteristics of real systems that are not considered in existing generic approaches.…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2010-03-31 Jörg Lehmann , Jakob Bernasconi

Background: Recently developed techniques to study the spread of infectious diseases through networks make assumptions that the initial proportion infected is infinitesimal and the population behavior is static throughout the epidemic. The…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-08-17 Joel C. Miller

We introduce a simple model for the size distribution of avalanches based on the idea that the front of an avalanche can be described by a directed random walk. The model captures some of the qualitative features of earthquakes, avalanches…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2007-05-23 T. Jonsson , J. F. Wheater

We investigate the breakdown of disordered networks under the action of an increasing external---mechanical or electrical---force. We perform a mean-field analysis and estimate scaling exponents for the approach to the instability. By…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 Stefano Zapperi , Purusattam Ray , H. Eugene Stanley , Alessandro Vespignani

Consider stochastic models for the spread of an infection in a structured community, where this structured community is itself described by a random network model. Some common network models and transmission models are defined and large…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-08-16 Tom Britton

Neuronal avalanches are a novel mode of activity in neuronal networks, experimentally found in vitro and in vivo, and exhibit a robust critical behaviour: These avalanches are characterized by a power law distribution for the size and…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2012-04-02 Lucilla de Arcangelis , Hans J. Herrmann

We study the network reconstruction problem for an epidemic reaction-diffusion. These models are an extension of deterministic, compartmental models to a graph setting, where the reactions within the nodes are coupled by a diffusion. We…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2021-09-24 Louis-Brahim Beaufort , Pierre-Yves Massé , Antonin Reboulet , Laurent Oudre