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The problem of statistical inference in its various forms has been the subject of decades-long extensive research. Most of the effort has been focused on characterizing the behavior as a function of the number of available samples, with far…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-12 Tomer Berg , Or Ordentlich , Ofer Shayevitz

In many statistical problems, the data distribution is specified through a generative process for which the likelihood function is analytically intractable, yet inference on the associated model parameters remains of primary interest. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-01 Haoyu Jiang , Yuexi Wang , Yun Yang

Prediction of future observations is a fundamental problem in statistics. Here we present a general approach based on the recently developed inferential model (IM) framework. We employ an IM-based technique to marginalize out the unknown…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-08-30 Ryan Martin , Rama Lingham

In this work, we consider causal inference in various high-dimensional treatment settings, including for single multi-valued treatments and vector treatments with binary or continuous components, when the number of treatments can be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-26 Patrick Kramer , Edward H. Kennedy , Isaac M. Opper

Reliability is an essential measure of how closely observed scores represent latent scores (reflecting constructs), assuming some latent variable measurement model. We present a general theoretical framework of reliability, placing emphasis…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-29 Yang Liu , Jolynn Pek , Alberto Maydeu-Olivares

Many statistical $M$-estimators are based on convex optimization problems formed by the combination of a data-dependent loss function with a norm-based regularizer. We analyze the convergence rates of projected gradient and composite…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-07-26 Alekh Agarwal , Sahand N. Negahban , Martin J. Wainwright

Reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) in machine learning (ML) regression tasks is becoming the focus of many studies in materials and chemical science. It is now well understood that average calibration is insufficient, and most studies…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-25 Pascal Pernot

This work is concerned with quasi-optimal a-priori finite element error estimates for the obstacle problem in the $L^2$-norm. The discrete approximations are introduced as solutions to a finite element discretization of an accordingly…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-11-26 Dominik Hafemeyer , Christian Kahle , Johannes Pfefferer

Modern statistical applications often involve minimizing an objective function that may be nonsmooth and/or nonconvex. This paper focuses on a broad Bregman-surrogate algorithm framework including the local linear approximation, mirror…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-12-20 Yiyuan She , Zhifeng Wang , Jiuwu Jin

Through an uncertainty quantification (UQ) perspective, we show that score-based generative models (SGMs) are provably robust to the multiple sources of error in practical implementation. Our primary tool is the Wasserstein uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-27 Nikiforos Mimikos-Stamatopoulos , Benjamin J. Zhang , Markos A. Katsoulakis

The vast majority of Dimensionality Reduction (DR) techniques rely on second-order statistics to define their optimization objective. Even though this provides adequate results in most cases, it comes with several shortcomings. The methods…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2017-08-21 Nikolaos Passalis , Anastasios Tefas

Predictive inference requires balancing statistical accuracy against informational complexity, yet the choice of complexity measure is usually imposed rather than derived. We treat econometric objects as predictive rules, mappings from…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-16 Nicholas G. Polson , Daniel Zantedeschi

We use a decision-theoretic framework to study the problem of forecasting discrete outcomes when the forecaster is unable to discriminate among a set of plausible forecast distributions because of partial identification or concerns about…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-12-18 Timothy Christensen , Hyungsik Roger Moon , Frank Schorfheide

Assessing the quality of aleatoric uncertainty estimates from uncertainty quantification (UQ) deep learning methods is important in scientific contexts, where uncertainty is physically meaningful and important to characterize and interpret…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-14 Rebecca Nevin , Aleksandra Ćiprijanović , Brian D. Nord

Bayesian inference requires specification of a single, precise prior distribution, whereas frequentist inference only accommodates a vacuous prior. Since virtually every real-world application falls somewhere in between these two extremes,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-26 Ryan Martin

We study the problem of locally private mean estimation of high-dimensional vectors in the Euclidean ball. Existing algorithms for this problem either incur sub-optimal error or have high communication and/or run-time complexity. We propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-28 Hilal Asi , Vitaly Feldman , Jelani Nelson , Huy L. Nguyen , Kunal Talwar

Quantifying the risk of global warming exceeding critical targets such as 2.0 K requires reliable projections of uncertainty as well as best estimates of Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST). However, uncertainty bands on GMST projections…

Applications · Statistics 2021-01-21 Philip G. Sansom , Donald Cummins , Stephan Siegert , David B. Stephenson

A popular approach for addressing uncertainty in variational inequality problems is by solving the expected residual minimization (ERM) problem. This avenue necessitates distributional information associated with the uncertainty and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-12-14 Yue Xie , Uday V. Shanbhag

This chapter presents key concepts and theoretical results for analyzing estimation and inference in high-dimensional models. High-dimensional models are characterized by having a number of unknown parameters that is not vanishingly small…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-06-12 Alexandre Belloni , Victor Chernozhukov , Denis Chetverikov , Christian Hansen , Kengo Kato

Performative prediction, as introduced by Perdomo et al, is a framework for studying social prediction in which the data distribution itself changes in response to the deployment of a model. Existing work in this field usually hinges on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-14 Yatong Chen , Wei Tang , Chien-Ju Ho , Yang Liu