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Generative models, like large language models, are becoming increasingly relevant in our daily lives, yet a theoretical framework to assess their generalization behavior and uncertainty does not exist. Particularly, the problem of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-11 Sebastian G. Gruber , Florian Buettner

Variance estimation is important for statistical inference. It becomes non-trivial when observations are masked by serial dependence structures and time-varying mean structures. Existing methods either ignore or sub-optimally handle these…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-03 Kin Wai Chan

As neural networks become more popular, the need for accompanying uncertainty estimates increases. There are currently two main approaches to test the quality of these estimates. Most methods output a density. They can be compared by…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-05 Laurens Sluijterman , Eric Cator , Tom Heskes

This paper presents a general and efficient framework for probabilistic inference and learning from arbitrary uncertain information. It exploits the calculation properties of finite mixture models, conjugate families and factorization. Both…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2011-05-19 M. C. Garrido , P. E. Lopez-de-Teruel , A. Ruiz

Regression tasks, notably in safety-critical domains, require proper uncertainty quantification, yet the literature remains largely classification-focused. In this light, we introduce a family of measures for total, aleatoric, and epistemic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-30 Christopher Bülte , Yusuf Sale , Gitta Kutyniok , Eyke Hüllermeier

Posterior probabilistic statistical inference without priors is an important but so far elusive goal. Fisher's fiducial inference, Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions, and Bayesian inference with default priors are attempts to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-03-26 Ryan Martin , Chuanhai Liu

A common challenge in nonparametric inference is its high computational complexity when data volume is large. In this paper, we develop computationally efficient nonparametric testing by employing a random projection strategy. In the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-02-20 Meimei Liu , Zuofeng Shang , Guang Cheng

Quantiles, expectiles and extremiles can be seen as concepts defined via an optimization problem, where this optimization problem is driven by two important ingredients: the loss function as well as a distributional weight function. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-21 Dieter Debrauwer , Irène Gijbels , Klaus Herrmann

It is often of interest to make inference on an unknown function that is a local parameter of the data-generating mechanism, such as a density or regression function. Such estimands can typically only be estimated at a…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-17 Aaron Hudson , Marco Carone , Ali Shojaie

Generalized variational inference (GVI) provides an optimization-theoretic framework for statistical estimation that encapsulates many traditional estimation procedures. The typical GVI problem is to compute a distribution of parameters…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-10-27 Aurya S. Javeed , Drew P. Kouri , Thomas M. Surowiec

We propose a new family of fairness definitions for classification problems that combine some of the best properties of both statistical and individual notions of fairness. We posit not only a distribution over individuals, but also a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-18 Michael Kearns , Aaron Roth , Saeed Sharifi-Malvajerdi

Optimization of frame structures is formulated as a~non-convex optimization problem, which is currently solved to local optimality. In this contribution, we investigate four optimization approaches: (i) general non-linear optimization, (ii)…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-09-17 Marek Tyburec , Jan Zeman , Martin Kružík , Didier Henrion

Modern large-scale statistical models require to estimate thousands to millions of parameters. This is often accomplished by iterative algorithms such as gradient descent, projected gradient descent or their accelerated versions. What are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-04 Michael Celentano , Andrea Montanari , Yuchen Wu

In most practical applications such as recommendation systems, display advertising, and so forth, the collected data often contains missing values and those missing values are generally missing-not-at-random, which deteriorates the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-27 Mingming Ha , Xuewen Tao , Wenfang Lin , Qionxu Ma , Wujiang Xu , Linxun Chen

Effect size measures and visualization techniques aimed at maximizing the interpretability and comparability of results from statistical models have long been of great importance and are recently again receiving increased attention in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-08 Hannah Kümpel , Sabine Hoffmann

We introduce Matched Machine Learning, a framework that combines the flexibility of machine learning black boxes with the interpretability of matching, a longstanding tool in observational causal inference. Interpretability is paramount in…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-05 Marco Morucci , Cynthia Rudin , Alexander Volfovsky

Parametric projections let analysts embed new points in real time, but input variations from measurement noise or data drift can produce unpredictable shifts in the 2D layout. Whether and where a projection is locally stable remains largely…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-04-24 Frederik L. Dennig , Daniel A. Keim

Nonparametric feature selection in high-dimensional data is an important and challenging problem in statistics and machine learning fields. Most of the existing methods for feature selection focus on parametric or additive models which may…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-31 Hang Yu , Yuanjia Wang , Donglin Zeng

Projection methods aim to reduce the dimensionality of the optimization instance, thereby improving the scalability of high-dimensional problems. Recently, Sakaue and Oki proposed a data-driven approach for linear programs (LPs), where the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-11-18 Anh Tuan Nguyen , Viet Anh Nguyen

We present a generic algorithm for learning and approximate inference with an intuitive epistemic interpretation: iteratively focus on a subset of the model and resolve inconsistencies using the parameters under control. This framework,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Oliver E. Richardson , Mandana Samiei , Mehran Shakerinava , Joseph D. Viviano , Abdessamad El Kabid , Ali Parviz , Yoshua Bengio