Related papers: A Multilevel Monte Carlo Estimator for Matrix Mult…
We develop a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) framework for uncertainty quantification with Monte Carlo dropout. Treating dropout masks as a source of epistemic randomness, we define a fidelity hierarchy by the number of stochastic forward…
We consider the problem of estimating expectations with respect to a target distribution with an unknown normalizing constant, and where even the unnormalized target needs to be approximated at finite resolution. Under such an assumption,…
This paper introduces a new Monte Carlo algorithm to invert large matrices. It is based on simultaneous coupled draws from two random vectors whose covariance is the required inverse. It can be considered a generalization of a previously…
We introduce an efficient numerical implementation of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to sample a probability distribution on a manifold (introduced theoretically in Zappa, Holmes-Cerfon, Goodman (2018)), where the manifold is defined by…
A system to update estimates from a sequence of probability distributions is presented. The aim of the system is to quickly produce estimates with a user-specified bound on the Monte Carlo error. The estimates are based upon weighted…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is the predominant tool used in Bayesian parameter estimation for hierarchical models. When the model expands due to an increasing number of hierarchical levels, number of groups at a particular level, or…
Estimating failure probabilities of engineering systems is an important problem in many engineering fields. In this work we consider such problems where the failure probability is extremely small (e.g $\leq10^{-10}$). In this case, standard…
Probabilistic prediction of sequences from images and other high-dimensional data is a key challenge, particularly in risk-sensitive applications. In these settings, it is often desirable to quantify the uncertainty associated with the…
For big data analysis, high computational cost for Bayesian methods often limits their applications in practice. In recent years, there have been many attempts to improve computational efficiency of Bayesian inference. Here we propose an…
The devices designed for the Internet-of-Things encompass a large variety of distinct processor architectures, forming a highly heterogeneous zoo. In order to tackle this, we employ a simulator to estimate the performance of the…
Self-learning Monte Carlo (SLMC) method is a general algorithm to speedup MC simulations. Its efficiency has been demonstrated in various systems by introducing an effective model to propose global moves in the configuration space. In this…
The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are popular when considering sampling from a high-dimensional random variable $\mathbf{x}$ with possibly unnormalised probability density $p$ and observed data $\mathbf{d}$. However, MCMC requires…
Because of their robustness, efficiency and non-intrusiveness, Monte Carlo methods are probably the most popular approach in uncertainty quantification to computing expected values of quantities of interest (QoIs). Multilevel Monte Carlo…
We propose a multi-index algorithm for the Monte Carlo (MC) discretization of a linear, elliptic PDE with affine-parametric input. We prove an error vs. work analysis which allows a multi-level finite-element approximation in the physical…
This paper considers clustered multi-task compressive sensing, a hierarchical model that solves multiple compressive sensing tasks by finding clusters of tasks that leverage shared information to mutually improve signal reconstruction. The…
Bayesian modelling and computational inference by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a principled framework for large-scale uncertainty quantification, though is limited in practice by computational cost when implemented in the simplest…
Multicanonical MCMC (Multicanonical Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Multicanonical Monte Carlo) is discussed as a method of rare event sampling. Starting from a review of the generic framework of importance sampling, multicanonical MCMC is…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are ubiquitous tools for simulation-based inference in many fields but designing and identifying good MCMC samplers is still an open question. This paper introduces a novel MCMC algorithm, namely,…
In lattice QCD the calculation of disconnected quark loops from the trace of the inverse quark matrix has large noise variance. A multilevel Monte Carlo method is proposed for this problem that uses different degree polynomials on a…
In this paper the application of the multi-level Monte Carlo (MLMC) method on numerical simulations of turbulent flows with uncertain parameters is investigated. Several strategies for setting up the MLMC method are presented, and the…