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We present a novel approach aimed at high-performance uncertainty quantification for time-dependent problems governed by partial differential equations. In particular, we consider input uncertainties described by a Karhunen-Loeeve expansion…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2021-02-05 Seif Ben Bader , Pietro Benedusi , Alessio Quaglino , Patrick Zulian , Rolf Krause

Science and engineering problems subject to uncertainty are frequently both computationally expensive and feature nonsmooth parameter dependence, making standard Monte Carlo too slow, and excluding efficient use of accelerated uncertainty…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-10-01 Per Pettersson , Sebastian Krumscheid

High statistical precision is critical for Monte Carlo (MC) samples in high energy physics and is degraded by negatively weighted events. This paper investigates a procedure to learn the relationship between the negative and positive weight…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2026-01-15 Christopher Palmer , Braden Kronheim

For numerical approximations to stochastic differential equations using the Euler-Maruyama scheme, we propose incorporating approximate random variables computed using low precisions, such as single and half precision. We propose and…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-07-17 Oliver Sheridan-Methven , Michael Giles

In this paper we address the problem of the prohibitively large computational cost of existing Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for large--scale applications with high dimensional parameter spaces, e.g. in uncertainty quantification in…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-08-11 T. J. Dodwell , C. Ketelsen , R. Scheichl , A. L. Teckentrup

Multilevel Monte Carlo can efficiently compute statistical estimates of discretized random variables, for a given error tolerance. Traditionally, only a certain statistic is computed from a particular implementation of multilevel Monte…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-02 Alastair Gregory , Colin Cotter

In this paper, we propose and analyze a new stochastic homogenization method for diffusion equations with random and fast oscillatory coefficients. In the proposed method, the homogenized solutions are sought through a two-stage procedure.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-03-14 Zihao Yang , Jizu Huang , Xiaobing Feng , Xiaofei Guan

We consider the order of convergence for linear and nonlinear Monte Carlo approximation of compact embeddings from Sobolev spaces of dominating mixed smoothness defined on the torus $\mathbb{T}^d$ into the space $L_{\infty}(\mathbb{T}^d)$…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-03-02 Glenn Byrenheid , Robert J. Kunsch , Van Kien Nguyen

We propose and analyze a method for computing failure probabilities of systems modeled as numerical deterministic models (e.g., PDEs) with uncertain input data. A failure occurs when a functional of the solution to the model is below (or…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-06-21 Daniel Elfverson , Fredrik Hellman , Axel Målqvist

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods offer a principled approach to Bayesian uncertainty quantification but are traditionally limited by the need for full-batch gradient evaluations. We introduce a scalable variant by incorporating…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-20 Andrew Millard , Zheng Zhao , Joshua Murphy , Simon Maskell

We consider the $\mathcal{H}^2$-formatted compression and computational estimation of covariance functions on a compact set in $\mathbb{R}^d$. The classical sample covariance or Monte Carlo estimator is prohibitively expensive for many…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-01-31 Jürgen Dölz

We develop new multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods to estimate the expectation of the smallest eigenvalue of a stochastic convection-diffusion operator with random coefficients. The MLMC method is based on a sequence of finite element…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-02-13 Tiangang Cui , Hans De Sterck , Alexander D. Gilbert , Stanislav Polishchuk , Robert Scheichl

We consider the numerical solution of scalar, nonlinear degenerate convection-diffusion problems with random diffusion coefficient and with random flux functions. Building on recent results on the existence, uniqueness and continuous…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2013-11-08 U. Koley , N. H. Risebro , Ch. Schwab , F. Weber

Uncertainty quantification for deep learning is a challenging open problem. Bayesian statistics offer a mathematically grounded framework to reason about uncertainties; however, approximate posteriors for modern neural networks still…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-23 Nicolas Brosse , Carlos Riquelme , Alice Martin , Sylvain Gelly , Éric Moulines

Macroscopically heterogeneous materials, characterised mostly by comparable heterogeneity lengthscale and structural sizes, can no longer be modelled by deterministic approach instead. It is convenient to introduce stochastic approach with…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2014-02-07 Jan Sýkora , Anna Kučerová

We present a hybrid method for time-dependent particle transport problems that combines Monte Carlo (MC) estimation with deterministic solutions based on discrete ordinates. For spatial discretizations, the MC algorithm computes a piecewise…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-12-08 Johannes Krotz , Cory D. Hauck , Ryan G. McClarren

We present novel Monte Carlo (MC) and multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods to determine the unbiased covariance of random variables using h-statistics. The advantage of this procedure lies in the unbiased construction of the estimator's…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-09 Sharana Kumar Shivanand

We propose a Multi-level Monte Carlo technique to accelerate Monte Carlo sampling for approximation of properties of materials with random defects. The computational efficiency is investigated on test problems given by tight-binding models…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-11-30 Petr Plecháč , Erik von Schwerin

We propose and analyze deterministic multilevel approximations for Bayesian inversion of operator equations with uncertain distributed parameters, subject to additive Gaussian measurement data. The algorithms use a multilevel (ML) approach…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-11-28 Josef Dick , Robert N. Gantner , Quoc T. Le Gia , Christoph Schwab

We consider a class of density-driven flow problems. We are particularly interested in the problem of the salinization of coastal aquifers. We consider the Henry saltwater intrusion problem with uncertain porosity, permeability, and…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-02-16 Alexander Litvinenko , Dmitry Logashenko , Raul Tempone , Ekaterina Vasilyeva , Gabriel Wittum