Related papers: The basic reproduction number, $R_0$, in structure…
Compartmental models are valuable tools for investigating infectious diseases. Researchers building such models typically begin with a simple structure where compartments correspond to individuals with different epidemiological statuses,…
Inference of the reproduction number through time is of vital importance during an epidemic outbreak. Typically, epidemiologists tackle this using observed prevalence or incidence data. However, prevalence and incidence data alone is often…
We consider the problem of estimating the reproduction number $R_t$ of an epidemic for populations where the probability of detection of cases depends on a known covariate. We argue that in such cases the normal empirical estimator can fail…
Reproduction numbers, like the basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_0$, play an important role in the analysis and application of dynamic models, including contagion models and ecological population models. One difficulty in deriving…
In the real world, many complex systems interact with other systems. In addition, the intra- or inter-systems for the spread of information about infectious diseases and the transmission of infectious diseases are often not random, but with…
A Markovian SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) model is considered for the spread of an epidemic on a configuration model network, in which susceptible individuals may take preventive measures by dropping edges to infectious neighbours.…
It is essential to understand the dynamics of epidemics in the presence of coexisting pathogens. There are various phenomenon that can effect the dynamics. In this paper, we formulate a mathematical model using different assumptions to…
Due to its ability to summarise 'real-time' epidemic behaviour, the time-dependent reproduction number, Rt, is a useful metric for tracking pathogen transmission and quantifying the effects of interventions during infectious disease…
We consider a space-time SI epidemic model with infection age-dependent infectivity and non-local infections constructed on a grid of the torus $\mathbb{T}^1 =(0, 1]^d$, where the individuals may migrate from node to another. The migration…
Structured epidemic models can be formulated as first-order hyperbolic PDEs, where the "spatial" variables represent individual traits, called structures. For models with two structures, we propose a numerical technique to approximate…
We study that the breakdown of epidemic depends on some parameters, that is expressed in epidemic reproduction ratio number. It is noted that when $R_0 $ exceeds 1, the stochastic model have two different results. But, eventually the…
The time-dependent reproduction number Rt can be used to track pathogen transmission and to assess the efficacy of interventions. This quantity can be estimated by fitting renewal equation models to time series of infectious disease case…
The effective reproduction number, R(t), is a central point in the study of infectious diseases. It establishes in an explicit way the extent of an epidemic spread process in a population. The current estimation methods for the time…
Early estimates of the transmission potential of emerging and re-emerging infections are increasingly used to inform public health authorities on the level of risk posed by outbreaks. Existing methods to estimate the reproduction number…
A simplified model for the growth of a population is studied in which random effects arise because reproducing individuals have a certain probability of surviving until the next breeding season and hence contributing to the next generation.…
We introduce an extension to Kermack and McKendrick's classic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model in epidemiology, whose underlying mechanism of infection consists of individuals attending randomly generated social gatherings. This…
Vector-borne diseases with reservoir cycles are complex to understand because new infections come from contacts of the vector with humans and different reservoirs. In this scenario, the basic reproductive number $\mathcal{R}^h_0$ of the…
The aim of this study is to propose a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model that describes the behaviour of symptomatic, asymptomatic and hospitalized patients of COVID-19 epidemic, including the effect of demographic…
We study a class of individual-based, fixed-population size epidemic models under general assumptions, e.g., heterogeneous contact rates encapsulating changes in behavior and/or enforcement of control measures. We show that the…
We propose a new network-based SIR epidemic model in which transmission is modulated by a curvature-weighted contact matrix that encodes structural and geometric features of the underlying graph. The formulation encompasses both…