Related papers: Emergent regularities and scaling in armed conflic…
The International System is a self-organized system that shows emergent behavior. During the timeframe (1495-1945) covered in this study, a finite-time singularity and four accompanying accelerating log-periodic cycles shaped the dynamics…
Scaling analysis reveals striking regularities in earthquake occurrence. The time between any one earthquake and that following it is random, but it is described by the same universal-probability distribution for any spatial region and…
Urban land growth presents a major sustainability challenge, yet its growth patterns and dynamics remain unclear. We quantified urban land evolution by analyzing its statistical distribution in 14 regions and countries over 29 years. The…
The increasing number of crimes in areas with large concentrations of people have made cities one of the main sources of violence. Understanding characteristics of how crime rate expands and its relations with the cities size goes beyond an…
Dynamical processes exhibiting absorbing states are essential in the modeling of a large variety of situations from material science to epidemiology and social sciences. Such processes exhibit the possibility of avalanching behavior upon…
We show that rain events are analogous to a variety of nonequilibrium relaxation processes in Nature such as earthquakes and avalanches. Analysis of high-resolution rain data reveals that power laws describe the number of rain events versus…
We introduce a simple model for the size distribution of avalanches based on the idea that the front of an avalanche can be described by a directed random walk. The model captures some of the qualitative features of earthquakes, avalanches…
Despite the rapid growth of cities in the past century, our quantitative, in-depth understanding of how cities grow remains limited due to a consistent lack of historical data. Thus, the scaling laws between a city's features and its…
Power law distributions of macroscopic observables are ubiquitous in both the natural and social sciences. They are indicative of correlated, cooperative phenomena between groups of interacting agents at the microscopic level. In this paper…
This paper explores the spatial and temporal diffusion of political violence in North and West Africa. It does so by endeavoring to represent the mental landscape that lives in the back of a group leader's mind as he contemplates strategic…
Many natural or human-made systems encompassing local reactions and diffusion processes exhibit spatially distributed patterns of some relevant dynamical variable. These interactions, through self-organization and critical phenomena, give…
We study the statistics of human deaths from wars, conflicts, similar man-made conflicts as well as natural disasters. The probability distribution of number of people killed in natural disasters as well as man made situations show power…
The prevalence of many urban phenomena changes systematically with population size. We propose a theory that unifies models of economic complexity and cultural evolution to derive urban scaling. The theory accounts for the difference in…
Scaling laws arise and are eulogized across disciplines from natural to social sciences for providing pithy, quantitative, `scale-free', and `universal' power law relationships between two variables. On a log-log plot, the power laws…
Numerous researchers from various disciplines have explored commonalities and divergences in the evolution of complex social formations. Here, we explore whether there is a 'characteristic' time-course for the evolution of social complexity…
In this work we characterize sudden increases in the land price of certain urban areas, a phenomenon causing gentrification, via an extended Schelling model. An initial price rise forces some of the disadvantaged inhabitants out of the…
Complex systems, when poised near a critical point of a phase transition between order and disorder, exhibit a dynamics comprising a scale-free mixture of order and disorder which is universal, i.e. system-independent (1-5). It allows…
Major revolts have recently erupted in parts of the Middle East with substantial international repercussions. Predicting, coping with and winning those revolts have become a grave problem for many regimes and for world powers. We propose a…
Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown impressive performance across natural language tasks, but their ability to forecast violent conflict remains underexplored. We investigate whether LLMs possess meaningful parametric knowledge-encoded…
Recent advances on human dynamics have focused on the normal patterns of human activities, with the quantitative understanding of human behavior under extreme events remaining a crucial missing chapter. This has a wide array of potential…