Related papers: Emergent regularities and scaling in armed conflic…

The risk of conflict is exasperated by a multitude of internal and external factors. Current multivariate analysis paints diverse causal risk profiles that vary with time. However, these profiles evolve and a universal model to understand…

In this paper I propose a 'mechanism' for the explanation of power-law characteristics of casualty dynamics in inter-state wars, intra-state wars and terrorist attacks: the scale-free physical organization of social systems. Other…

Enduring violent conflicts are interrupted by lulls without violence. Studies of interevent times found power law distributions based on coarse-grained data with a resolution of one day. Fine-grained data of violence with a resolution of…

The origin of power-law distributions in self-organized criticality is investigated by treating the variation of the number of active sites in the system as a stochastic process. An avalanche is then regarded as a first-return random walk…

We are able to unify various disparate claims and results in the literature, that stand in the way of a unified description and understanding of human conflict. First, we provide a reconciliation of the numerically different exponent values…

We analyze the statistics of water droplet avalanches in a continuously driven system. Distributions are obtained for avalanche size, lifetime, and time between successive avalanches, along with power spectra and return maps. For low flow…

Acts of political violence in the continental United States have increased dramatically in the last decade. For this rise in political violence, we are interested in where and when such incidents occur: how are the locations and times of…

Hierarchies can be modeled by a set of exponential functions, from which we can derive a set of power laws indicative of scaling. The solution to a scaling relation equation is always a power law. The scaling laws are followed by many…

We introduce cluster dynamical models of conflicts in which only the largest cluster can be involved in an action. This mimics the situations in which an attack is planned by a central body, and the largest attack force is used. We study…

We investigate the breakdown of disordered networks under the action of an increasing external---mechanical or electrical---force. We perform a mean-field analysis and estimate scaling exponents for the approach to the instability. By…

We extend a generic class of systems which have previously been shown to spontaneously develop scaling (power law) distributions of their elementary degrees of freedom. While the previous systems were linear and exploded exponentially for…

We characterize the distributions of size and duration of avalanches propagating in complex networks. By an avalanche we mean the sequence of events initiated by the externally stimulated `excitation' of a network node, which may, with some…

Human interactions can be either positive or negative, giving rise to different complex social or anti-social phenomena. The dynamics of these interactions often lead to certain spatio-temporal patterns and complex networks, which can be…

An avalanche or cascade occurs when one event causes one or more subsequent events, which in turn may cause further events in a chain reaction. Avalanching dynamics are studied in many disciplines, with a recent focus on average avalanche…

Avalanches are often defined as signals higher than some detection level in bursty systems. The choice of the detection threshold affects the number of avalanches, but it can also affect their temporal correlations. We simulated the…

In the online social dynamics, a robust scaling behaviour appears as a key feature of many collaborative efforts that lead to the new social value. The underlying empirical data thus offer a unique opportunity to study the origin of…

News reports in media contain records of a wide range of socio-economic and political events in time. Using a publicly available, large digital database of news records, and aggregating them over time, we study the network of ethnic…

Numerous systems ranging from deformation of materials to earthquakes exhibit bursty dynamics, which consist of a sequence of events with a broad event size distribution. Very often these events are observed to be temporally correlated or…

Despite recent advances in uncovering the quantitative features of stationary human activity patterns, many applications, from pandemic prediction to emergency response, require an understanding of how these patterns change when the…

The timing patterns of human communication in social networks is not random. On the contrary, communication is dominated by emergent statistical laws such as non-trivial correlations and clustering. Recently, we found long-term correlations…