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We propose a modelling framework for the optimal selection of crypto assets. Crypto assets differ by two essential features: security (technological) and stability (governance). Investors make choices over crypto assets similarly to how…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2019-07-23 Silvia Bartolucci , Andrei Kirilenko

We mine the leaked history of trades on Mt. Gox, the dominant Bitcoin exchange from 2011 to early 2014, to detect the triangular arbitrage activity conducted within the platform. The availability of user identifiers per trade allows us to…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-09-24 Pietro Saggese , Alessandro Belmonte , Nicola Dimitri , Angelo Facchini , Rainer Böhme

Blockchain-based cryptocurrencies prioritize transactions based on their fees, creating a unique kind of fee market. Empirically, this market has failed to yield stable equilibria with predictable prices for desired levels of service. We…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2019-01-23 Soumya Basu , David Easley , Maureen O'Hara , Emin Gün Sirer

The risk premia of traded factors are the sum of factor means and a parameter vector we denote by {\phi} which is identified from the cross section regression of alpha of individual securities on the vector of factor loadings. If phi is…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-10-23 M. Hashem Pesaran , Ron P. Smith

Alpha signals for statistical arbitrage strategies are often driven by latent factors. This paper analyses how to optimally trade with latent factors that cause prices to jump and diffuse. Moreover, we account for the effect of the trader's…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-06-13 Philippe Casgrain , Sebastian Jaimungal

This research proposes a novel arbitrage approach in multivariate pair trading, termed the Optimal Trading Technique (OTT). We present a method for selectively forming a "bucket" of fiat currencies anchored to cryptocurrency for monitoring…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2024-08-12 Hongshen Yang , Avinash Malik

Optimization methods are used to determine equilibria of investment in cryptocurrencies. The basic assumptions involve existence of a core group (the "wealthy") that fears the loss of substantial assets through government seizure.…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-04-16 Carey Caginalp , Gunduz Caginalp

We present a simple model that uses time series momentum in order to construct strategies that systematically outperform their benchmark. The simplicity of our model is elegant: We only require a benchmark time series and several related…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-02-12 Marc Rohloff , Alexander Vogt

Cross-correlations in fluctuations of the daily exchange rates within the basket of the 100 highest-capitalization cryptocurrencies over the period October 1, 2015, through March 31, 2019, are studied. The corresponding dynamics…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-02-12 Stanisław Drożdż , Ludovico Minati , Paweł Oświęcimka , Marek Stanuszek , Marcin Wątorek

We study recurrent patterns in volatility and volume for major cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ether, using data from two centralized exchanges (Coinbase Pro and Binance) and a decentralized exchange (Uniswap V2). We find systematic patterns…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2021-11-05 Peter Reinhard Hansen , Chan Kim , Wade Kimbrough

There are no solid arguments to sustain that digital currencies are the future of online payments or the disruptive technology that some of its former participants declared when used to face critiques. This paper aims to solve the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-12-03 Obryan Poyser

A blockchain replaces central counterparties with time-consuming consensus protocols to record the transfer of ownership. This settlement latency slows cross-exchange trading, exposing arbitrageurs to price risk. Off-chain settlement,…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2023-10-20 Nikolaus Hautsch , Christoph Scheuch , Stefan Voigt

Currently, there are no convincing proxies for the fundamentals of cryptocurrency assets. We propose a new market-to-fundamental ratio, the price-to-utility (PU) ratio, utilizing unique blockchain accounting methods. We then proxy various…

General Economics · Economics 2023-07-11 Yulin Liu , Luyao Zhang

Transformer models have become increasingly popular in financial applications, yet their potential risk making and biases remain under-explored. The purpose of this work is to audit the reliance of the model on volatile data for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-02 Armin Gerami , Ramani Duraiswami

Cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin, in particular, are prone to wild swings resulting in frequent jumps in prices, making them historically popular for traders to speculate. A better understanding of these fluctuations can greatly benefit crypto…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-10-17 Edson Pindza , Jules Clement Mba , Sutene Mwambi , Nneka Umeorah

Blockchain and its application on cryptocurrency transactions have gathered a lot of attention and popularity since the birth of the pioneer Bitcoin in 2009. More than 1500 cryptocurrencies are currently circulated in the market. The…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2019-01-21 Gourang Aggarwal , Vimal Patel , Gaurav Varshney , Kimberly Oostman

We generalize the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) to include the contribution of virtual arbitrage opportunities. We model the arbitrage return by a stochastic process. The latter is incorporated in the APT framework to calculate the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-10 Kirill Ilinski

This paper examines the implementation of a statistical arbitrage trading strategy based on co-integration relationships where we discover candidate portfolios using multiple factors rather than just price data. The portfolio selection…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2014-05-13 Wenbin Zhang , Zhen Dai , Bindu Pan , Milan Djabirov

This is the first paper that estimates the price determinants of BitCoin in a Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity framework using high frequency data. Derived from a theoretical model, we estimate BitCoin transaction…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-12-27 Pavel Ciaian , d'Artis Kancs , Miroslava Rajcaniova

Statistical arbitrage is a class of financial trading strategies using mean reversion models. The corresponding techniques rely on a number of assumptions which may not hold for general non-stationary stochastic processes. This paper…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-02 Christopher Mohri