Related papers: Bounds on Bayes Factors for Binomial A/B Testing
In this paper, we propose an explicit closed-form Bayes factor for the problem of two-sample hypothesis testing. The proposed approach can be regarded as a Bayesian version of the pooled-variance t-statistic and has various appealing…
Online controlled experiments (A/B tests) are fundamental to data-driven decision-making in the digital economy. However, their real-world application is frequently compromised by two critical shortcomings: the use of statistically flawed…
The sample mean is often used to aggregate different unbiased estimates of a parameter, producing a final estimate that is unbiased but possibly high-variance. This paper introduces the Bayesian median of means, an aggregation rule that…
This study establishes the consistency of Bayesian adaptive testing methods under the Rasch model, addressing a gap in the literature on their large-sample guarantees. Although Bayesian approaches are recognized for their finite-sample…
Tests of goodness of fit are used in nearly every domain where statistics is applied. One powerful and flexible approach is to sample artificial data sets that are exchangeable with the real data under the null hypothesis (but not under the…
The Bayes factor is the gold-standard figure of merit for comparing fits of models to data, for hypothesis selection and parameter estimation. However it is little used because it is computationally very intensive. Here it is shown how…
Current PAC-Bayes generalisation bounds are restricted to scalar metrics of performance, such as the loss or error rate. However, one ideally wants more information-rich certificates that control the entire distribution of possible…
The American Statistical Association (ASA) statement on statistical significance and P-values \cite{wasserstein2016asa} cautioned statisticians against making scientific decisions solely on the basis of traditional P-values. The statement…
We investigate the discrimination of two candidates of an unknown parameter in quantum systems with continuous weak measurement, inspired by the application of hypothesis testing in distinguish-ing two Hamiltonians [Kiilerich and M{\o}lmer,…
The problem of inferring the binomial parameter p from x successes obtained in n trials is reviewed and extended to take into account the presence of background, that can affect the data in two ways: a) fake successes are due to a…
In this paper the Bayesian analysis is applied to assign a probability density to the value of a quantity having a definite sign. This analysis is logically consistent with the results, positive or negative, of repeated measurements.…
Since its introduction by Fisher, the method of hypothesis testing that relies on computing error probabilities has witnessed several developments. Perhaps the most significant development was the seminal contributions of Neyman and Pearson…
This paper examines how spillover effects in A/B testing can impede organizational progress and develops strategies for mitigating these challenges. We identify a phenomenon termed ``seesaw experimentation'', where a firm's overall…
Bayesian inference gets its name from *Bayes's theorem*, expressing posterior probabilities for hypotheses about a data generating process as the (normalized) product of prior probabilities and a likelihood function. But Bayesian inference…
In Bayesian hypothesis testing, evidence for a statistical model is quantified by the Bayes factor, which represents the relative likelihood of observed data under that model compared to another competing model. In general, computing Bayes…
Factor analysis is over a century old, but it is still problematic to choose the number of factors for a given data set. The scree test is popular but subjective. The best performing objective methods are recommended on the basis of…
Analogues of the frequentist chi-square and F tests are proposed for testing goodness-of-fit and consistency for Bayesian models. Simple examples exhibit these tests' detection of inconsistency between consecutive experiments with identical…
Random effects are a flexible addition to statistical models to capture structural heterogeneity in the data, such as spatial dependencies, individual differences, temporal dependencies, or non-linear effects. Testing for the presence (or…
AB testing aids business operators with their decision making, and is considered the gold standard method for learning from data to improve digital user experiences. However, there is usually a gap between the requirements of practitioners,…
It has long been known that for the comparison of pairwise nested models, a decision based on the Bayes factor produces a consistent model selector (in the frequentist sense). Here we go beyond the usual consistency for nested pairwise…