Related papers: Efficient Bayesian inference for nonlinear state s…

In this paper we propose a flexible class of multivariate nonlinear non-Gaussian state space models, based on copulas. More precisely, we assume that the observation equation and the state equation are defined by copula families that are…

We develop a Bayesian spatio-temporal framework for extreme-value analysis that augments a hierarchical copula model with an autoregressive factor to capture residual temporal dependence in threshold exceedances. The factor can be specified…

State-space models have been successfully used for more than fifty years in different areas of science and engineering. We present a procedure for efficient variational Bayesian learning of nonlinear state-space models based on sparse…

Dependent generalized extreme value (dGEV) models have attracted much attention due to the dependency structure that often appears in real datasets. To construct a dGEV model, a natural approach is to assume that some parameters in the…

The stochastic volatility model is a popular tool for modeling the volatility of assets. The model is a nonlinear and non-Gaussian state space model, and consequently is difficult to fit. Many approaches, both classical and Bayesian, have…

We consider Particle Gibbs (PG) as a tool for Bayesian analysis of non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. PG is a Monte Carlo (MC) approximation of the standard Gibbs procedure which uses sequential MC (SMC) importance sampling inside…

Solving ill-posed inverse problems by Bayesian inference has recently attracted considerable attention. Compared to deterministic approaches, the probabilistic representation of the solution by the posterior distribution can be exploited to…

Spike-and-slab and horseshoe regression are arguably the most popular Bayesian variable selection approaches for linear regression models. However, their performance can deteriorate if outliers and heteroskedasticity are present in the…

Although linear regression models are fundamental tools in statistical science, the estimation results can be sensitive to outliers. While several robust methods have been proposed in frequentist frameworks, statistical inference is not…

Monte Carlo methods are essential tools for Bayesian inference. Gibbs sampling is a well-known Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, extensively used in signal processing, machine learning, and statistics, employed to draw samples from…

A fundamental task in machine learning and related fields is to perform inference on Bayesian networks. Since exact inference takes exponential time in general, a variety of approximate methods are used. Gibbs sampling is one of the most…

State space models are well-known for their versatility in modeling dynamic systems that arise in various scientific disciplines. Although parametric state space models are well studied, nonparametric approaches are much less explored in…

The ubiquity of multiscale interactions in complex systems is well-recognized, with development and heredity serving as a prime example of how processes at different temporal scales influence one another. This work introduces a novel…

We consider the problem of sampling from a product-of-experts-type model that encompasses many standard prior and posterior distributions commonly found in Bayesian imaging. We show that this model can be easily lifted into a novel latent…

State space models (SSMs) are widely used to describe dynamic systems. However, when the likelihood of the observations is intractable, parameter inference for SSMs cannot be easily carried out using standard Markov chain Monte Carlo or…

Gibbs sampling, as a model learning method, is known to produce the most accurate results available in a variety of domains, and is a de facto standard in these domains. Yet, it is also well known that Gibbs random walks usually have…

We put forward a new Bayesian modeling strategy for spatiotemporal count data that enables efficient posterior sampling. Most previous models for such data decompose logarithms of the response Poisson rates into fixed effects and spatial…

Motivated by the application to German interest rates, we propose a timevarying autoregressive model for short and long term prediction of time series that exhibit a temporary non-stationary behavior but are assumed to mean revert in the…

We develop efficient simulation techniques for Bayesian inference on switching GARCH models. Our contribution to existing literature is manifold. First, we discuss different multi-move sampling techniques for Markov Switching (MS) state…

We develop a hierarchical Gaussian process model for forecasting and inference of functional time series data. Unlike existing methods, our approach is especially suited for sparsely or irregularly sampled curves and for curves sampled with…