Related papers: Efficient Bayesian inference for nonlinear state s…
State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference \emph{and learning} (i.e. state estimation and system…
The steady-state Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) makes it possible to incorporate prior information about the long-run mean of the process. This has been shown in many studies to substantially improve forecasting performance, and the…
Gaussian graphical models (GGMs) are well-established tools for probabilistic exploration of dependence structures using precision matrices. We develop a Bayesian method to incorporate covariate information in this GGMs setup in a nonlinear…
Generative Bayesian Filtering (GBF) provides a powerful and flexible framework for performing posterior inference in complex nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space models. Our approach extends Generative Bayesian Computation (GBC) to…
We propose to construct copulas from the inversion of nonlinear state space models. These allow for new time series models that have the same serial dependence structure of a state space model, but with an arbitrary marginal distribution,…
P-splines provide a flexible setting for modeling nonlinear model components based on a discretized penalty structure with a relatively simple computational backbone. Under a Bayesian inferential framework based on Markov chain Monte Carlo,…
Advances in sensing technology have made it possible to collect large volumes of high-dimensional time-series data. In fields like genetics and neuroscience, key questions concern whether directed relationships between variables can be…
In Smyl et al. [Local and global trend Bayesian exponential smoothing models. International Journal of Forecasting, 2024.], a generalised exponential smoothing model was proposed that is able to capture strong trends and volatility in time…
We propose a flexible Bayesian approach for sparse Gaussian graphical modeling of multivariate time series. We account for temporal correlation in the data by assuming that observations are characterized by an underlying and unobserved…
Finite mixture models are frequently used to uncover latent structures in high-dimensional datasets (e.g.\ identifying clusters of patients in electronic health records). The inference of such structures can be performed in a Bayesian…
Learning dynamical models from data is not only fundamental but also holds great promise for advancing principle discovery, time-series prediction, and controller design. Among various approaches, Gaussian Process State-Space Models…
Kelly (2007, hereafter K07) described an efficient algorithm, using Gibbs sampling, for performing linear regression in the fairly general case where non-zero measurement errors exist for both the covariates and response variables, where…
Modeling nonstationary processes is of paramount importance to many scientific disciplines including environmental science, ecology, and finance, among others. Consequently, flexible methodology that provides accurate estimation across a…
In this paper, we present the Bayesian inference procedures for the parameters of the multivariate random effects model derived under the assumption of an elliptically contoured distribution when the Berger and Bernardo reference and the…
We develop a method to perform model averaging in two-stage linear regression systems subject to endogeneity. Our method extends an existing Gibbs sampler for instrumental variables to incorporate a component of model uncertainty. Direct…
We develop a general class of Bayesian repulsive Gaussian mixture models that encourage well-separated clusters, aiming at reducing potentially redundant components produced by independent priors for locations (such as the Dirichlet…
Gibbs sampling is one of the most commonly used Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms due to its simplicity and efficiency. It cycles through the latent variables, sampling each one from its distribution conditional on the current…
We propose a class of dynamic vine copula models. This is an extension of static vine copulas and a generalization of dynamic C-vine and D-vine copulas studied by Almeida et al (2016) and Goel and Mehra (2019). Within this class, we allow…
One of the pivotal tasks in scientific machine learning is to represent underlying dynamical systems from time series data. Many methods for such dynamics learning explicitly require the derivatives of state data, which are not directly…
A state-space model is a time-series model that has an unobserved latent process from which we take noisy measurements over time. The observations are conditionally independent given the latent process and the latent process itself is…