Related papers: A New Mathematical Framework for Atmospheric Block…
In two previous papers the author described ``Islands of Instability" that may appear in wavefunction models with nonlinear evolution (of a type proposed originally in the context of the Measurement Problem). Such ``IsoI" represent a new…
Phase mixing of chaotic orbits exponentially distributes these orbits through their accessible phase space. This phenomenon, commonly called ``chaotic mixing'', stands in marked contrast to phase mixing of regular orbits which proceeds as a…
While AI weather models excel at short-to-medium range forecasts (up to 15 days), they frequently suffer from ill-defined "instabilities" when rolled out over longer horizons. This work addresses the lack of a formal taxonomy by…
Time series models often deal with extreme events and anomalies, both prevalent in real-world datasets. Such models often need to provide careful probabilistic forecasting, which is vital in risk management for extreme events such as…
Dynamics of regular clusters of many non-touching particles falling under gravity in a viscous fluid at low Reynolds number are analysed within the point-particle model. Evolution of two families of particle configurations is determined: 2…
Spatial diffusion of particles in periodic potential models has provided a good framework for studying the role of chaos in global properties of classical systems. Here a bidimensional "soft" billiard, classically modeled from an optical…
A combination of methods originating from non-stationary timeseries analysis is applied to two datasets of near surface turbulence in order to gain insights on the non-stationary enhancement mechanism of intermittent turbulence in the…
Turbulence is a widely observed state of fluid flows, characterized by complex, nonlinear interactions between motions across a broad spectrum of length and time scales. While turbulence is ubiquitous, from teacups to planetary atmospheres,…
We consider simple stochastic climate models, described by slowly time-dependent Langevin equations. We show that when the noise intensity is not too large, these systems can spend substantial amounts of time in metastable equilibrium,…
Planetary Climate Models (PCMs) are developed to explore planetary climates other than the Earth. Therefore, the methods implemented need to be suitable for a large diversity of conditions. Every planet with a significant atmosphere has…
In Hamiltonian systems subjected to periodic perturbations the stable and unstable manifolds of the unstable periodic orbits provide the dynamical "skeleton" that drives the mixing process and bounds the chaotic regions of the phase space.…
We propose a framework for studying predictability of extreme events in complex systems. Major conceptual elements -- hierarchical structure, spatial dynamics, and external driving -- are combined in a classical branching diffusion with…
Mixing and transport of passive particles are studied in a simple kinematic model of a meandering jet flow motivated by the problem of lateral mixing and transport in the Gulf Stream. We briefly discuss a model streamfunction, Hamiltonian…
The purpose of this contribution is to summarize and discuss recent advances regarding the onset of turbulence in shear flows. The absence of a clear cut instability mechanism, the spatio-temporal intermittent character and extremely long…
In recent years, the climate change research community has become highly interested in describing the anthropogenic influence on extreme weather events, commonly termed "event attribution." Limitations in the observational record and in…
Atmospheric flows exhibit selfsimilar fluctuations on all scales(space-time) ranging from climate(kilometers/years) to turbulence(millimeters/seconds) manifested as fractal geometry to the global cloud cover pattern concomitant with inverse…
Atmospheric flows, an example of turbulent fluid flows, exhibit fractal fluctuations of all space-time scales ranging from turbulence scale of mm -sec to climate scales of thousands of kilometers - years and may be visualized as a nested…
The purpose of this review-and-research paper is twofold: (i) to review the role played in climate dynamics by fluid-dynamical models; and (ii) to contribute to the understanding and reduction of the uncertainties in future climate-change…
Orbits in a three-dimensional potential subjected to periodic driving, V(x^i,t)=[1+m_0 sin(omega t) V_0(x^i), divide naturally into two types, regular and chaotic, between which transitions are seemingly impossible. The chaotic orbits…
We identify a new type of pattern formation in spatially distributed active systems. We simulate one-dimensional two-component systems with predator-prey local interaction and pursuit-evasion taxis between the components. In a sufficiently…