Related papers: A New Mathematical Framework for Atmospheric Block…
Unstable Periodic Orbits (UPOs) were used to identify regimes, and transitions between regimes, in a reduced-order coupled atmosphere-land spectral model. In this paper we describe how the chaotic attractor of this model was clustered using…
Atmospheric blocking events are quasi-stationary high-pressure systems that disrupt the typical paths of polar and subtropical air currents, often producing prolonged extreme weather events such as summer heat waves or winter cold spells.…
This study delves into the predictability of atmospheric blocking, zonal, and transition patterns utilizing a simplified coupled model. Initially, we comprehensively scrutinize the model's responses to environmental parameters like solar…
Detecting recurrent weather patterns and understanding the transitions between such regimes are key to advancing our knowledge on the low-frequency variability of the atmosphere and have important implications in terms of weather and…
The predictability of the atmosphere at short and long time scales, associated with the coupling to the ocean, is explored in a new version of the Modular Arbitrary-Order Ocean-Atmosphere Model (MAOOAM), based on a 2-layer quasi-geostrophic…
Unstable periodic orbits (UPOs) are a valuable tool for studying chaotic dynamical systems, as they allow one to distill their dynamical structure. We consider here the Lorenz 1963 model with the classic parameters' value. We investigate…
The predictability of weather and climate is strongly state-dependent: special and extremely relevant atmospheric states like blockings are associated with anomalous instability. Indeed, typically, the instability of a chaotic dynamical…
Atmospheric flows exhibit long-range spatiotemporal correlations manifested as the fractal geometry to the global cloud cover pattern concomitant with inverse power law form for power spectra of temporal fluctuations on all space-time…
Due to existence of periodic windows, chaotic systems undergo numerous bifurcations as system parameters vary, rendering it hard to employ an analytic continuation, which constitutes a major obstacle for its effective analysis or…
Atmospheric blocking exerts a profound influence on mid-latitude circulation, yet its predictability remains elusive due to intrinsic non-linearities and sensitivity to initial-conditions. While blocking dynamics have been extensively…
Atmospheric blockings are persistent large-scale climate patterns with duration between days and weeks. In principle, blockings might involve a large number of modes interacting non-linearly, and a conclusive description for their onset and…
For a simple model of chaotic dynamical systems with a large number of degrees of freedom, we find that there is an ensemble of unstable periodic orbits (UPOs) with the special property that the expectation values of macroscopic quantities…
Stickiness is a well known phenomenon in which chaotic orbits expend an expressive amount of time in specific regions of the chaotic sea. This phenomenon becomes important when dealing with area-preserving open systems because, in this…
Turbulence, namely, irregular fluctuations in space and time characterize fluid flows in general and atmospheric flows in particular.The irregular,i.e., nonlinear space-time fluctuations on all scales contribute to the unpredictable nature…
Atmospheric weather systems are coherent structures consisting of discrete cloud cells forming patterns of rows/streets, mesoscale clusters and spiral bands which maintain their identity for the duration of their appreciable life times in…
Anticipating critical transitions in the Earth system is of great societal relevance, yet there may be intrinsic limitations to their predictability. For instance, from the theory of dynamical systems possessing multiple chaotic attractors,…
Tipping points (TP) in climate sub-systems are usually thought to occur at a well-defined, critical forcing parameter threshold, via destabilization of the system state by a single, dominant positive feedback. However, coupling to other…
The apparantly irregular (unpredictable) space-time fluctuations in atmospheric flows ranging from climate (thousands of kilometers - years) to turbulence (millimeters - seconds) exhibit the universal symmetry of self-similarity.…
Various subsystems of the Earth system may undergo critical transitions by passing a so-called tipping point, under sustained changes to forcing. For example, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is of particular…
Chaos is widely understood as being a consequence of sensitive dependence upon initial conditions. This is the result of an instability in phase space, which separates trajectories exponentially. Here, we demonstrate that this criterion…