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We characterize those ex-ante restrictions on the random utility model which lead to identification. We first identify a simple class of perturbations which transfer mass from a suitable pair of preferences to the pair formed by swapping…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-08-14 Peter P. Caradonna , Christopher Turansick

This paper studies nonparametric identification in market level demand models for differentiated products with heterogeneous consumers. We consider a general class of models that allows for the individual specific coefficients to vary…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-01-19 Fabian Dunker , Stefan Hoderlein , Hiroaki Kaido

Nontransitive choices have long been an area of curiosity within economics. However, determining whether nontransitive choices represent an individual's preference is a difficult task since choice data is inherently stochastic. This paper…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-05-01 Mogens Fosgerau , John Rehbeck

Counterfactual Explanations are becoming a de-facto standard in post-hoc interpretable machine learning. For a given classifier and an instance classified in an undesired class, its counterfactual explanation corresponds to small…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-17 Veronica Piccialli , Dolores Romero Morales , Cecilia Salvatore

Given an observational study with $n$ independent but heterogeneous units, our goal is to learn the counterfactual distribution for each unit using only one $p$-dimensional sample per unit containing covariates, interventions, and outcomes.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-18 Abhin Shah , Raaz Dwivedi , Devavrat Shah , Gregory W. Wornell

The increasing deployment of machine learning as well as legal regulations such as EU's GDPR cause a need for user-friendly explanations of decisions proposed by machine learning models. Counterfactual explanations are considered as one of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-04 André Artelt , Barbara Hammer

Counterfactual explanations are widely used to communicate how inputs must change for a model to alter its prediction. For a single instance, many valid counterfactuals can exist, which leaves open the possibility for an explanation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-09 James Hinns , Sofie Goethals , Stephan Van der Veeken , Theodoros Evgeniou , David Martens

Counterfactuals are central in causal human reasoning and the scientific discovery process. The uplift, also called conditional average treatment effect, measures the causal effect of some action, or treatment, on the outcome of an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-10 Théo Verhelst , Denis Mercier , Jeevan Shrestha , Gianluca Bontempi

In this work we propose a different surgical modified model for the construction of counterfactual variables under non parametric structural equation models. This approach allows the simultaneous representation of counterfactual responses…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-10-08 Julieta Molina , Lucio Pantazis , Mariela Sued

Conjoint experiments randomize multidimensional profiles, offering a powerful design for recovering structural preference parameters -- including marginal rates of substitution, willingness to pay, and the distribution of preferences across…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-26 Avidit Acharya , Jens Hainmueller , Yiqing Xu

Algorithms are commonly used to predict outcomes under a particular decision or intervention, such as predicting whether an offender will succeed on parole if placed under minimal supervision. Generally, to learn such counterfactual…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-04-19 Amanda Coston , Edward H. Kennedy , Alexandra Chouldechova

Counterfactual reasoning, a cornerstone of human cognition and decision-making, is often seen as the 'holy grail' of causal learning, with applications ranging from interpreting machine learning models to promoting algorithmic fairness.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-11 Yahya Aalaila , Gerrit Großmann , Sumantrak Mukherjee , Jonas Wahl , Sebastian Vollmer

We analyze demand settings where heterogeneous consumers maximize utility for product attributes subject to a nonlinear budget constraint. We develop nonparametric methods for welfare-analysis of interventions that change the constraint.…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-11-05 Debopam Bhattacharya , Ekaterina Oparina , Qianya Xu

Evaluation of counterfactual queries (e.g., "If A were true, would C have been true?") is important to fault diagnosis, planning, and determination of liability. In this paper we present methods for computing the probabilities of such…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-28 Alexander Balke , Judea Pearl

Functional data are frequently accompanied by a parametric template that describes the typical shapes of the functions. However, these parametric templates can incur significant bias, which undermines both utility and interpretability. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-18 Daniel R. Kowal , Antonio Canale

Deep generative models can emulate the perceptual properties of complex image datasets, providing a latent representation of the data. However, manipulating such representation to perform meaningful and controllable transformations in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-13 Michel Besserve , Arash Mehrjou , Rémy Sun , Bernhard Schölkopf

This paper considers (partial) identification of a variety of counterfactual parameters in binary response models with possibly endogenous regressors. Our framework allows for nonseparable index functions with multi-dimensional latent…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-07-26 Jiaying Gu , Thomas M. Russell

We assume to be given structural equations over discrete variables inducing a directed acyclic graph, namely, a structural causal model, together with data about its internal nodes. The question we want to answer is how we can compute…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-12-05 Marco Zaffalon , Alessandro Antonucci , Rafael Cabañas , David Huber , Dario Azzimonti

The increasing occurrence of ordinal data, mainly sociodemographic, led to a renewed research interest in ordinal regression, i.e. the prediction of ordered classes. Besides model accuracy, the interpretation of these models itself is of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-21 Lukas Pfannschmidt , Jonathan Jakob , Michael Biehl , Peter Tino , Barbara Hammer

As data-driven predictive models are increasingly used to inform decisions, it has been argued that decision makers should provide explanations that help individuals understand what would have to change for these decisions to be beneficial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-15 Stratis Tsirtsis , Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez