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This paper proposes an information-based inference method for partially identified parameters in incomplete models that is valid both when the model is correctly specified and when it is misspecified. Key features of the method are: (i) it…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-25 Hiroaki Kaido , Francesca Molinari

We derive an information criterion to select a parametric model of complete-data distribution when only incomplete or partially observed data is available. Compared with AIC, our new criterion has an additional penalty term for missing…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-07 Hidetoshi Shimodaira , Haruyoshi Maeda

We propose a new model selection method, the posterior averaging information criterion, for Bayesian model assessment from a predictive perspective. The theoretical foundation is built on the Kullback-Leibler divergence to quantify the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-22 Shouhao Zhou

The information criterion for determining the number of explanatory variables in a subset regression modeling is discussed. Information criterion such as AIC is effective and frequently used in model selection for ordinary regression models…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-18 Genshiro Kitagawa

The semiparametric estimation approach, which includes inverse-probability-weighted and doubly robust estimation using propensity scores, is a standard tool in causal inference, and it is rapidly being extended in various directions. On the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-29 Takamichi Baba , Yoshiyuki Ninomiya

Many practical studies rely on hypothesis testing procedures applied to data sets with missing information. An important part of the analysis is to determine the impact of the missing data on the performance of the test, and this can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-02-15 Dan L. Nicolae , Xiao-Li Meng , Augustine Kong

We propose an information criterion for multistep ahead predictions. It is also used for extrapolations. For the derivation, we consider multistep ahead predictions under local misspecification. In the prediction, we show that Bayesian…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-12-06 Keisuke Yano , Fumiyasu Komaki

Proper scoring rules evaluate the quality of probabilistic predictions, playing an essential role in the pursuit of accurate and well-calibrated models. Every proper score decomposes into two fundamental components -- proper calibration…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-15 Teodora Popordanoska , Sebastian G. Gruber , Aleksei Tiulpin , Florian Buettner , Matthew B. Blaschko

Model averaging is a useful and robust method for dealing with model uncertainty in statistical analysis. Often, it is useful to consider data subset selection at the same time, in which model selection criteria are used to compare models…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-26 Ethan T. Neil , Jacob W. Sitison

The widely applicable information criterion (WAIC) has been used as a model selection criterion for Bayesian statistics in recent years. It is an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between a Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-09 Yoshiyuki Ninomiya

Group sequential designs enable interim analyses and potential early stopping for efficacy or futility. While these adaptations improve trial efficiency and ethical considerations, they also introduce bias into the adapted analyses. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-07 G. Caruso , W. F. Rosenberger , P. Mozgunov , N. Flournoy

We study semiparametric efficiency bounds and efficient estimation of parameters defined through general moment restrictions with missing data. Identification relies on auxiliary data containing information about the distribution of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-04-04 Xiaohong Chen , Han Hong , Alessandro Tarozzi

Bayesian model averaging is a practical method for dealing with uncertainty due to model specification. Use of this technique requires the estimation of model probability weights. In this work, we revisit the derivation of estimators for…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-05 Ethan T. Neil , Jacob W. Sitison

For propensity score analysis and sparse estimation, we develop an information criterion for determining the regularization parameters needed in variable selection. First, for Gaussian distribution-based causal inference models, we extend…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-22 Yoshiyuki Ninomiya

The inferential model (IM) framework provides valid prior-free probabilistic inference by focusing on predicting unobserved auxiliary variables. But, efficient IM-based inference can be challenging when the auxiliary variable is of higher…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-01-20 Ryan Martin , Chuanhai Liu

Feature selection and reducing the dimensionality of data is an essential step in data analysis. In this work, we propose a new criterion for feature selection that is formulated as conditional information between features given the labeled…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-20 Salimeh Yasaei Sekeh , Alfred O. Hero

For the multivariate linear regression model with unknown covariance, the corrected Akaike information criterion is the minimum variance unbiased estimator of the expected Kullback--Leibler discrepancy. In this study, based on the loss…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-20 Takeru Matsuda

In the problem of selecting variables in a multivariate linear regression model, we derive new Bayesian information criteria based on a prior mixing a smooth distribution and a delta distribution. Each of them can be interpreted as a fusion…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-09-29 Haruki Kono , Tatsuya Kubokawa

We study model selection and model averaging in generalized additive partial linear models (GAPLMs). Polynomial spline is used to approximate nonparametric functions. The corresponding estimators of the linear parameters are shown to be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-03-09 Xinyu Zhang , Hua Liang

We derive independence tests by means of dependence measures thresholding in a semiparametric context. Precisely, estimates of phi-mutual informations, associated to phi-divergences between a joint distribution and the product distribution…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-08-20 Amor Keziou , Philippe Regnault
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