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Cross-validation is a popular non-parametric method for evaluating the accuracy of a predictive rule. The usefulness of cross-validation depends on the task we want to employ it for. In this note, I discuss a simple non-parametric setting,…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-27 Stefan Wager

Statistical machine learning models should be evaluated and validated before putting to work. Conventional k-fold Monte Carlo Cross-Validation (MCCV) procedure uses a pseudo-random sequence to partition instances into k subsets, which…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-07-05 Liang Guo , Jianya Liu , Ruodan Lu

The present work aims at deriving theoretical guaranties on the behavior of some cross-validation procedures applied to the $k$-nearest neighbors ($k$NN) rule in the context of binary classification. Here we focus on the leave-$p$-out…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-13 Alain Celisse , Tristan Mary-Huard

The lasso procedure is ubiquitous in the statistical and signal processing literature, and as such, is the target of substantial theoretical and applied research. While much of this research focuses on the desirable properties that lasso…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-08-06 Darren Homrighausen , Daniel J. McDonald

Recursive partitioning approaches producing tree-like models are a long standing staple of predictive modeling, in the last decade mostly as ``sub-learners'' within state of the art ensemble methods like Boosting and Random Forest. However,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-12-14 Amichai Painsky , Saharon Rosset

Cross-validation (CV) is one of the main tools for performance estimation and parameter tuning in machine learning. The general recipe for computing CV estimate is to run a learning algorithm separately for each CV fold, a computationally…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-07-02 Pooria Joulani , András György , Csaba Szepesvári

Cross-validation (CV) is known to provide asymptotically exact tests and confidence intervals for model improvement but only when the model comparison is relatively stable. Surprisingly, we prove that even simple, individually stable models…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-10 Alexandre Bayle , Lucas Janson , Lester Mackey

The problem of validating or criticising models for georeferenced data is challenging, since the conclusions can vary significantly depending on the locations of the validation set. This work proposes the use of cross-validation techniques…

Computation · Statistics 2018-02-19 Viviana G R Lobo , Thaís C O da Fonseca , Fernando A S Moura

Cross-validation (CV) is a technique used to estimate generalization error for prediction models. For pipeline modeling algorithms (i.e. modeling procedures with multiple steps), it has been recommended the entire sequence of steps be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-05 Byron C. Jaeger , Nicholas J. Tierney , Noah R. Simon

Used to estimate the risk of an estimator or to perform model selection, cross-validation is a widespread strategy because of its simplicity and its apparent universality. Many results exist on the model selection performances of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-02-01 Sylvain Arlot , Alain Celisse

We present a methodology for model evaluation and selection where the sampling mechanism violates the i.i.d. assumption. Our methodology involves a formulation of the bias between the standard Cross-Validation (CV) estimator and the mean…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-14 Oren Yuval , Saharon Rosset

Cross-validation (CV) is one of the most popular tools for assessing and selecting predictive models. However, standard CV suffers from high computational cost when the number of folds is large. Recently, under the empirical risk…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-30 Yuetian Luo , Zhimei Ren , Rina Foygel Barber

K-fold cross-validation (CV) with squared error loss is widely used for evaluating predictive models, especially when strong distributional assumptions cannot be taken. However, CV with squared error loss is not free from distributional…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-10 Assaf Rabinowicz , Saharon Rosset

Evaluation metrics for prediction error, model selection and model averaging on space-time data are understudied and poorly understood. The absence of independent replication makes prediction ambiguous as a concept and renders evaluation…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-08 Gregory L. Watson , Colleen E. Reid , Michael Jerrett , Donatello Telesca

Model comparison is the cornerstone of theoretical progress in psychological research. Common practice overwhelmingly relies on tools that evaluate competing models by balancing in-sample descriptive adequacy against model flexibility, with…

Applications · Statistics 2021-10-11 Viet-Hung Dao , David Gunawan , Minh-Ngoc Tran , Robert Kohn , Guy E. Hawkins , Scott D. Brown

Eclipse mapping is a technique for inferring 2D brightness maps of transiting exoplanets from the shape of an eclipse light curve. With JWST's unmatched precision, eclipse mapping is now possible for a large number of exoplanets. However,…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2023-10-06 Ryan C. Challener , Luis Welbanks , Peter McGill

In this paper we consider the problem of Gaussian process classifier (GPC) model selection with different Leave-One-Out (LOO) Cross Validation (CV) based optimization criteria and provide a practical algorithm using LOO predictive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-06-27 Sundararajan Sellamanickam , Sathiya Keerthi Selvaraj

Hyperparameter tuning plays a crucial role in optimizing the performance of predictive learners. Cross--validation (CV) is a widely adopted technique for estimating the error of different hyperparameter settings. Repeated cross-validation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-01 Giovanni Maria Merola

Cross-validation assesses the predictive ability of a model, allowing one to rank models accordingly. Although the nonparametric bootstrap is almost always used to assess the variability of a parameter, it can be used as the basis for…

Applications · Statistics 2019-09-30 James Stephens Cavenaugh

In Bayesian statistics, the marginal likelihood, also known as the evidence, is used to evaluate model fit as it quantifies the joint probability of the data under the prior. In contrast, non-Bayesian models are typically compared using…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-24 Edwin Fong , Chris Holmes