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Randomized trials balance all covariates on average and provide the gold standard for estimating treatment effects. Chance imbalances nevertheless exist more or less in realized treatment allocations and intrigue an important question: what…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-18 Anqi Zhao , Peng Ding

Primarily motivated by the drug development process, several publications have now presented methodology for the design of multi-arm multi-stage experiments with normally distributed outcome variables of known variance. Here, we extend…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-04 Michael Grayling , James Wason , Adrian Mander

The topic of multiple hypotheses testing now has a potpourri of novel theories and ubiquitous applications in diverse scientific fields. However, the universal utility of this field often hinders the possibility of having a generalized…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-25 Monitirtha Dey , Subir Kumar Bhandari

When randomized controlled trials are impractical or unethical to simultaneously compare multiple treatments, indirect treatment comparisons using single-arm trials offer valuable evidence for health technology assessments, especially for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-30 Yuru Zhu , Huiyuan Wang , Haitao Chu , Yumou Qiu , Yong Chen

It is increasingly common to augment randomized controlled trial with external controls from observational data, to evaluate the treatment effect of an intervention. Traditional approaches to treatment effect estimation involve ambiguous…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-28 Bo Liu , Laine Thomas , Rury R. Holman , Fan Li

Leveraging external controls -- relevant individual patient data under control from external trials or real-world data -- has the potential to reduce the cost of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) while increasing the proportion of trial…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-13 Yanyao Yi , Ying Zhang , Yu Du , Ting Ye

High dimensional case control studies are ubiquitous in the biological sciences, particularly genomics. To maximise power while constraining cost and to minimise type-1 error rates, researchers typically seek to replicate findings in a…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-11 James Liley

This paper studies inference in cluster randomized trials where treatment status is determined according to a "matched pairs" design. Here, by a cluster randomized experiment, we mean one in which treatment is assigned at the level of the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-08-14 Yuehao Bai , Jizhou Liu , Azeem M. Shaikh , Max Tabord-Meehan

Background: Screening trials require large sample sizes and long time-horizons to demonstrate mortality reductions. We recently proposed increasing statistical power by testing stored control-arm specimens, called the Intended Effect (IE)…

Applications · Statistics 2024-11-11 Hormuzd A. Katki , Li C. Cheung

A common practice in IV studies is to check for instrument strength, i.e. its association to the treatment, with an F-test from regression. If the F-statistic is above some threshold, usually 10, the instrument is deemed to satisfy one of…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-17 Nan Bi , Hyunseung Kang , Jonathan Taylor

Multi-arm multi-stage trial designs can bring notable gains in efficiency to the drug development process. However, for normally distributed endpoints, the determination of a design typically depends on the assumption that the patient…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-11 Michael Grayling , James Wason , Adrian Mander

The win ratio (WR) statistic is increasingly used to evaluate treatment effects based on prioritized composite endpoints, yet existing Bayesian adaptive designs are not directly applicable because the WR is a summary statistic derived from…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-20 Di Zhu , Yong Zang

A practical limitation of cluster randomized controlled trials (cRCTs) is that the number of available clusters may be small, resulting in an increased risk of baseline imbalance under simple randomization. Constrained randomization…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-19 Yunji Zhou , Elizabeth L. Turner , Ryan A. Simmons , Fan Li

Clinical trials are an instrument for making informed decisions based on evidence from well-designed experiments. Here we consider adaptive designs mainly from the perspective of multi-arm Phase II clinical trials, in which one or more…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-31 Elja Arjas , Dario Gasbarra

Though platform trials have been touted for their flexibility and streamlined use of trial resources, their statistical efficiency is not well understood. We fill this gap by establishing their greater efficiency for comparing the relative…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-28 Tzu-Jung Huang , Alex Luedtke , the AMP Investigators Group

Adjustment of statistical significance levels for repeated analysis in group sequential trials has been understood for some time. Similarly, methods for adjustment accounting for testing multiple hypotheses are common. There is limited…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-28 Yujie Zhao , Qi Liu , Linda Z. Sun , Keaven M. Anderson

The question of selecting the "best" amongst different choices is a common problem in statistics. In drug development, our motivating setting, the question becomes, for example: what is the dose that gives me a pre-specified risk of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-03-15 Pavel Mozgunov , Thomas Jaki

Survival time is the primary endpoint of many randomized controlled trials, and a treatment effect is typically quantified by the hazard ratio under the assumption of proportional hazards. Awareness is increasing that in many settings this…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-04 Robin Ristl , Heiko Götte , Armin Schüler , Martin Posch , Franz König

Group sequential design (GSD) is widely used in clinical trials in which correlated tests of multiple hypotheses are used. Multiple primary objectives resulting in tests with known correlations include evaluating 1) multiple experimental…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-22 Keaven M. Anderson , Zifang Guo , Jing Zhao , Linda Z. Sun

Improved procedures, in terms of smaller missed discovery rates (MDR), for performing multiple hypotheses testing with weak and strong control of the family-wise error rate (FWER) or the false discovery rate (FDR) are developed and studied.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-03-10 Edsel A. Peña , Joshua D. Habiger , Wensong Wu