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It is common to show the confidence intervals or $p$-values of selected features, or predictor variables in regression, but they often involve selection bias. The selective inference approach solves this bias by conditioning on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-02 Yoshikazu Terada , Hidetoshi Shimodaira

Selective inference is a subfield of statistics that enables valid inference after selection of a data-dependent question. In this paper, we introduce selectively dominant p-values, a class of p-values that allow practitioners to easily…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-22 Anav Sood

Phylogenetic inference, grounded in molecular evolution models, is essential for understanding the evolutionary relationships in biological data. Accounting for the uncertainty of phylogenetic tree variables, which include tree topologies…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-04 Takahiro Mimori , Michiaki Hamada

We propose a statistical method to test whether two phylogenetic trees with given alignments are significantly incongruent. Our method compares the two distributions of phylogenetic trees given by the input alignments, instead of comparing…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2010-04-14 Elissaveta Arnaoudova , David Haws , Peter Huggins , Jerzy W. Jaromczyk , Neil Moore , Chris Schardl , Ruriko Yoshida

Decision trees are widely used for non-linear modeling, as they capture interactions between predictors while producing inherently interpretable models. Despite their popularity, performing inference on the non-linear fit remains largely…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-14 Soham Bakshi , Snigdha Panigrahi

We consider conducting inference on the output of the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) [Breiman et al., 1984] algorithm. A naive approach to inference that does not account for the fact that the tree was estimated from the data…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-19 Anna C. Neufeld , Lucy L. Gao , Daniela M. Witten

A general approach to selective inference is considered for hypothesis testing of the null hypothesis represented as an arbitrary shaped region in the parameter space of multivariate normal model. This approach is useful for hierarchical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-03-28 Yoshikazu Terada , Hidetoshi Shimodaira

Adaptive experiments use preliminary analyses of the data to inform further course of action and are commonly used in many disciplines including medical and social sciences. Because the null hypothesis and experimental design are…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-26 Tobias Freidling , Qingyuan Zhao , Zijun Gao

Estimating phylogenetic trees is an important problem in evolutionary biology, environmental policy and medicine. Although trees are estimated, their uncertainties are discarded by mathematicians working in tree space. Here we explicitly…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-16 Amy D. Willis , Rayna C. Bell

Phylogenies are commonly used to represent the evolutionary relationships between species, and often these phylogenies are equipped with edge lengths that indicate degrees of evolutionary difference. Given such a phylogeny, a popular…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-02-12 Martin Frohn , Kerry Manson

Phylogenetic trees are a central tool in understanding evolution. They are typically inferred from sequence data, and capture evolutionary relationships through time. It is essential to be able to compare trees from different data sources…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2017-10-31 Michelle Kendall , Caroline Colijn

The algebraic properties of flattenings and subflattenings provide direct methods for identifying edges in the true phylogeny -- and by extension the complete tree -- using pattern counts from a sequence alignment. The relatively small…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-05-06 Joshua Stevenson , Barbara Holland , Michael Charleston , Jeremy Sumner

Phylogenetic trees represent certain species and their likely ancestors. In such a tree, present-day species are leaves and an edge from u to v indicates that u is an ancestor of v. Weights on these edges indicate the phylogenetic distance.…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-10-08 Jannik Schestag

We study the effectiveness of non-uniform randomized feature selection in decision tree classification. We experimentally evaluate two feature selection methodologies, based on information extracted from the provided dataset: $(i)$…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-03-25 Anastasios Kyrillidis , Anastasios Zouzias

Survival analysis concerns the task of predicting the time until an event occurs. Often used in the medical field, survival analysis deals with incomplete (i.e., censored) data, for instance, from patients who did not experience the event…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Thalea Schlender , Peter A. N. Bosman , Tanja Alderliesten

Inferring evolutionary histories (phylogenetic trees) has important applications in biology, criminology and public health. However, phylogenetic trees are complex mathematical objects that reside in a non-Euclidean space, which complicates…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-16 Amy Willis

As researchers collect increasingly large molecular data sets to reconstruct the Tree of Life, the heterogeneity of signals in the genomes of diverse organisms poses challenges for traditional phylogenetic analysis. A class of phylogenetic…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-09-11 Liang Liu , Zhenxiang Xi , Shaoyuan Wu , Charles Davis , Scott V. Edwards

A classical result, fundamental to evolutionary biology, states that an edge-weighted tree $T$ with leaf set $X$, positive edge weights, and no vertices of degree 2 can be uniquely reconstructed from the set of leaf-to-leaf distances…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2011-07-15 A. W. M. Dress , K. T. Huber , M. Steel

A major task of evolutionary biology is the reconstruction of phylogenetic trees from molecular data. The evolutionary model is given by a Markov chain on a tree. Given samples from the leaves of the Markov chain, the goal is to reconstruct…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-09-30 Constantinos Daskalakis , Elchanan Mossel , Sebastien Roch

Phylogenetics is now fundamental in life sciences, providing insights into the earliest branches of life and the origins and spread of epidemics. However, finding suitable phylogenies from the vast space of possible trees remains…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-01-24 Matthew J Penn , Neil Scheidwasser , Joseph Penn , Christl A Donnelly , David A Duchêne , Samir Bhatt
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