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This paper gives a new, simple proof of the known fact that for contact processes on general lattices, in the subcritical regime the expected number of infected sites decays exponentially fast as time tends to infinity. The proof also…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-08 Jan M. Swart

In the analysis of Markov chains and processes, it is sometimes convenient to replace an unbounded state space with a "truncated" bounded state space. When such a replacement is made, one often wants to know whether the equilibrium behavior…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-06-24 Alex Infanger , Peter W. Glynn

We study the estimation of the value function for continuous-time Markov diffusion processes using a single, discretely observed ergodic trajectory. Our work provides non-asymptotic statistical guarantees for the least-squares…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-07 Wenlong Mou

The voltage-conductance kinetic equation for an ensemble of neurons has been studied by many scientists and mathematicians, while its rigorous analysis is still at a premature stage. In this work, we obtain for the first time the…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-05-09 Xu'an Dou , Fanhao Kong , Weijun Xu , Zhennan Zhou

A $p$-jump process is a piecewise deterministic Markov process with jumps by a factor of $p$. We prove a limit theorem for such processes on the unit interval. Via duality with respect to probability generating functions, we deduce limiting…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-07-02 F. Hermann , P. Pfaffelhuber

Consider a discrete time Markov process $X^\epsilon$ on $\mathbf R^d$ that makes a deterministic jump based on its current location, and then takes a small Gaussian step of variance $\epsilon^2$. We study the behavior of the asymptotic…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-19 William Cooperman , Gautam Iyer , James Nolen

We consider a class of birth-and-death processes describing a population made of $d$ sub-populations of different types which interact with one another. The state space is $\mathbb{Z}_+^d$ (unbounded). We assume that the population goes…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-20 J. -R. Chazottes , P. Collet , S. Méléard

We investigate the concept of an asymptotic e-process, which is a doubly-indexed stochastic process $(E_{m,n})_{m,n\in\mathbb{N}}$ that possesses, asymptotically for an approximation index $m\to\infty$, the properties of an e-process along…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-25 Pierre-François Massiani , Sebastian Schulze , Mattes Mollenhauer

The quantitative long time behavior of absorbing, finite, irreducible Markov processes is considered. Via Doob transforms, it is shown that only the knowledge of the ratio of the values of the underlying first Dirichlet eigenvector is…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-06-10 Persi Diaconis , Laurent Miclo

For a sample of Exponentially distributed durations we aim at point estimation and a confidence interval for its parameter. A duration is only observed if it has ended within a certain time interval, determined by a Uniform distribution.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-19 Rafael Weißbach , Dominik Wied

We study the relationship between two classical approaches for quantitative ergodic properties : the first one based on Lyapunov type controls and popularized by Meyn and Tweedie, the second one based on functional inequalities (of…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Dominique Bakry , Patrick Cattiaux , Arnaud Guillin

A piecewise-deterministic Markov process, specified by random jumps and switching semi-flows, as well as the associated Markov chain given by its post-jump locations, are investigated in this paper. The existence of an exponentially…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-07 Dawid Czapla , Katarzyna Horbacz , Hanna Wojewódka-Ściążko

For Markov chains and Markov processes exhibiting a form of stochastic monotonicity (larger states shift up transition probabilities in terms of stochastic dominance), stability and ergodicity results can be obtained using order-theoretic…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-01 Takashi Kamihigashi , John Stachurski

By using a coupling method, an explicit log-Harnack inequality with local geometry quantities is established for (sub-Markovian) diffusion semigroups on a Riemannian manifold (possibly with boundary). This inequality as well as the…

Differential Geometry · Mathematics 2012-09-28 Marc Arnaudon , Anton Thalmaier , Feng-Yu Wang

The mild sufficient conditions for exponential ergodicity of a Markov process, defined as the solution to SDE with a jump noise, are given. These conditions include three principal claims: recurrence condition R, topological irreducibility…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Alexey M. Kulik

We consider the problem of extinction processes on random networks with a given structure. For sufficiently large well-mixed populations, the process of extinction of one or more state variable components occurs in the tail of the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-01-13 Brandon S. Lindley , Leah B. Shaw , Ira B. Schwartz

We derive universal thermodynamic inequalities that bound from below the moments of first-passage times of stochastic currents in nonequilibrium stationary states of Markov jump processes in the limit where the thresholds that define the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-02-03 Izaak Neri

We study sufficient conditions for local asymptotic mixed normality. We weaken the sufficient conditions in Theorem 1 of Jeganathan (Sankhya Ser. A 1982) so that they can be applied to a wider class of statistical models including a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-04 Teppei Ogihara , Yuma Uehara

We study the concentration phenomenon for discrete-time random dynamical systems with an unbounded state space. We develop a heuristic approach towards obtaining exponential concentration inequalities for dynamical systems using an entirely…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-08 Muhammad Abdullah Naeem , Miroslav Pajic

Under mild non-degeneracy assumptions on branching rates in each generation, we provide a criterion for almost-sure extinction of a multi-type branching process with time-dependent branching rates. We also provide a criterion for the total…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-22 Dmitry Dolgopyat , Pratima Hebbar , Leonid Koralov , Mark Perlman