English

Asymptotic e-processes

Statistics Theory 2026-05-25 v2 Methodology Statistics Theory

Abstract

We investigate the concept of an asymptotic e-process, which is a doubly-indexed stochastic process (Em,n)m,nN(E_{m,n})_{m,n\in\mathbb{N}} that possesses, asymptotically for an approximation index mm\to\infty, the properties of an e-process along a monitoring time index nn. This constitutes the first in-depth study of this recently introduced concept, which is relevant in asymptotic sequential anytime-valid inference. Our theory is motivated by practical applications in sequential hypothesis testing, in which e-variables and e-processes can only be constructed approximately from observations due to model misspecification or estimation errors. Technically, asymptotic e-processes satisfy an asymptotic version of Ville's inequality, which bounds excursion probabilities of (Em,n)m,nN(E_{m,n})_{m,n\in\mathbb{N}} uniformly over nn up to a monitoring time horizon rmr_m. We show the necessity of allowing for finite values of rmr_m, recovering truly anytime-valid guarantees asymptotically if rmr_m\to\infty. We derive various properties of asymptotic e-processes, and study their connections to asymptotic supermartingales. We also investigate general methods for their construction such as calibration, the cumulative product of asymptotic e-variables, and the monitoring an of an e-process that depends on an estimated parameter. The latter construction constitutes a generalization of a recent approach within the context of asymptotic post-hoc inference.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2604.19353,
  title  = {Asymptotic e-processes},
  author = {Pierre-François Massiani and Sebastian Schulze and Mattes Mollenhauer},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2604.19353},
  year   = {2026}
}

Comments

49 pages, 3 figures. Under review, may be subject to changes

R2 v1 2026-07-01T12:28:11.449Z