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Uncertainty in the prediction of future weather is commonly assessed through the use of forecast ensembles that employ a numerical weather prediction model in distinct variants. Statistical postprocessing can correct for biases in the…

Applications · Statistics 2016-06-16 Annette Möller , Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir , Alex Lenkoski , Tilmann Gneiting

Energy-Based Models (EBMs) present a flexible and appealing way to represent uncertainty. Despite recent advances, training EBMs on high-dimensional data remains a challenging problem as the state-of-the-art approaches are costly, unstable,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-08 Will Grathwohl , Jacob Kelly , Milad Hashemi , Mohammad Norouzi , Kevin Swersky , David Duvenaud

Climate models are generally calibrated manually by comparing selected climate statistics, such as the global top-of-atmosphere energy balance, to observations. The manual tuning only targets a limited subset of observational data and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-04-06 Michael F. Howland , Oliver R. A. Dunbar , Tapio Schneider

The thermodynamics of point defects is crucial for determining the functional properties of materials. Defect stability is typically assessed using grand-canonical defect formation energy, which requires deducing the equilibrium chemical…

Materials Science · Physics 2024-12-06 Amir M. Orvati Movaffagh , Adetoye Adekoya , Sara Kadkhodaei

The ensemble Kalman filter is a well-known and celebrated data assimilation algorithm. It is of particular relevance as it used for high-dimensional problems, by updating an ensemble of particles through a sample mean and covariance…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-07-27 Neil K. Chada

The phase-field method has been established as a de facto standard for simulating the microstructural evolution of materials. In quantitative modeling the assessment and compilation of thermodynamic/kinetic data is largely dominated by the…

Materials Science · Physics 2022-06-09 D. Schwen , C. Jiang , L. K. Aagesen

Physico-chemical continuum battery models are typically parameterized by manual fits, relying on the individual expertise of researchers. In this article, we introduce a computer algorithm that directly utilizes the experience of battery…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2023-02-08 Yannick Kuhn , Hannes Wolf , Arnulf Latz , Birger Horstmann

We propose a new regularisation strategy for the classical ensemble Kalman inversion (EKI) framework. The strategy consists of: (i) an adaptive choice for the regularisation parameter in the update formula in EKI, and (ii) criteria for the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-09-24 Marco Iglesias , Yuchen Yang

Intuitive human-machine interfaces may be developed using pattern classification to estimate executed human motions from electromyogram (EMG) signals generated during muscle contraction. The continual use of EMG-based interfaces gradually…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-10-03 Seitaro Yoneda , Akira Furui

Construction of kinetic models has become an indispensable step in the development and scale up of processes in the industry. Model-based design of experiments (MBDoE) has been widely used for the purpose of improving parameter precision in…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-04-15 Panagiotis Petsagkourakis , Federico Galvanin

A key factor in ensuring the accuracy of computer simulations that model physical systems is the proper calibration of their parameters based on real-world observations or experimental data. Inevitably, uncertainties arise, and Bayesian…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-02-25 Daniel Andrés Arcones , Martin Weiser , Phaedon-Stelios Koutsourelakis , Jörg F. Unger

Data required to calibrate uncertain GCM parameterizations are often only available in limited regions or time periods, for example, observational data from field campaigns, or data generated in local high-resolution simulations. This…

Applications · Statistics 2022-10-05 Oliver R. A. Dunbar , Michael F. Howland , Tapio Schneider , Andrew M. Stuart

The development of a consistent framework for Calphad model sensitivity is necessary for the rational reduction of uncertainty via new models and experiments. In the present work, a sensitivity theory for Calphad was developed, and a…

Materials Science · Physics 2021-02-24 Richard Otis , Brandon Bocklund , Zi-Kui Liu

The thermodynamic entropy of coarse-grained (CG) models stands as one of the most important properties for quantifying the missing information during the CG process and for establishing transferable (or extendible) CG interactions. However,…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2024-04-10 Jaehyeok Jin , David R. Reichman

Computer models, aiming at simulating a complex real system, are often calibrated in the light of data to improve performance. Standard calibration methods assume that the optimal values of calibration parameters are invariant to the model…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-09-01 Georgios Karagiannis , Bledar A. Konomi , Guang Lin

Accurate free-energy calculations are essential for predicting thermodynamic properties and phase stability, but existing methods are limited: phonon-based approaches neglect anharmonicity and liquids, while molecular dynamics (MD) is…

Materials Science · Physics 2025-11-19 Ekaterina Spirande , Timofei Miryashkin , Andrei Kolmakov , Alexander Shapeev

Stacking fault energy (SFE) is of the most critical microstructure attribute for controlling the deformation mechanism and optimizing mechanical properties of austenitic steels, while there are no accurate and straightforward computational…

Materials Science · Physics 2020-09-15 Xin Wang , Wei Xiong

The modeling of multi-energy systems (MES) is the basic task of analyzing energy systems integration. The variable energy efficiencies of the energy conversion and storage components in MES introduce nonlinearity to the model and thus…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-04-12 Wujing Huang , Ning Zhang , Yi Wang , Tomislav Capuder , Igor Kuzle , Chongqing Kang

Global ocean models exhibit biases in the mean state and variability, particularly at coarse resolution, where mesoscale eddies are unresolved. To address these biases, parameterization coefficients are typically tuned ad hoc. Here, we…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-05-19 Pavel Perezhogin , Alistair Adcroft , Laure Zanna

Accurate condition monitoring of industrial equipment requires inferring latent degradation parameters from indirect sensor measurements under uncertainty. While traditional Bayesian methods like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) provide…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-23 Peter Collett , Alexander Johannes Stasik , Simone Casolo , Signe Riemer-Sørensen