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Counterfactual instances are a powerful tool to obtain valuable insights into automated decision processes, describing the necessary minimal changes in the input space to alter the prediction towards a desired target. Most previous…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-07 Robert-Florian Samoilescu , Arnaud Van Looveren , Janis Klaise

Orthogonal meta-learners, such as DR-learner, R-learner and IF-learner, are increasingly used to estimate conditional average treatment effects. They improve convergence rates relative to na\"{\i}ve meta-learners (e.g., T-, S- and…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-17 Stijn Vansteelandt , Paweł Morzywołek

Causal inference has numerous real-world applications in many domains, such as health care, marketing, political science, and online advertising. Treatment effect estimation, a fundamental problem in causal inference, has been extensively…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-03 Zhixuan Chu , Jianmin Huang , Ruopeng Li , Wei Chu , Sheng Li

This paper describes several approaches for estimating the benchmark dose (BMD) in a risk assessment study with quantal dose-response data and when there are competing model classes for the dose-response function. Strategies involving a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-19 Edsel A. Pena , Wensong Wu , Walter Piegorsch , Ronald W. West , Lingling An

We study counterfactual prediction under assignment bias and propose a mathematically grounded, information-theoretic approach that removes treatment-covariate dependence without adversarial training. Starting from a bound that links the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Shiqin Tang , Rong Feng , Shuxin Zhuang , Youzhi Zhang , Hongzong Li

The recent adoption of machine learning as a tool in real world decision making has spurred interest in understanding how these decisions are being made. Counterfactual Explanations are a popular interpretable machine learning technique…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-05 Andrew O'Brien , Edward Kim

Reinforcement learning algorithms are generally designed to maximize the expected return across a population. However, a policy that is optimal on average may be suboptimal for certain individuals, leading to potential safety concerns. To…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-26 Jingyi Li , Peng Wu , Chengchun Shi

Weighted estimators are commonly used for estimating exposure effects in observational settings to establish causal relations. These estimators have a long history of development when the exposure of interest is binary and where the weights…

Interpretable machine learning seeks to understand the reasoning process of complex black-box systems that are long notorious for lack of explainability. One flourishing approach is through counterfactual explanations, which provide…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-06-02 Vy Vo , Trung Le , Van Nguyen , He Zhao , Edwin Bonilla , Gholamreza Haffari , Dinh Phung

Motivated by the size of cell line drug sensitivity data, researchers have been developing machine learning (ML) models for predicting drug response to advance cancer treatment. As drug sensitivity studies continue generating data, a common…

Treatment effect estimation, which refers to the estimation of causal effects and aims to measure the strength of the causal relationship, is of great importance in many fields but is a challenging problem in practice. As present,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-20 Zhenyu Guo , Shuai Zheng , Zhizhe Liu , Kun Yan , Zhenfeng Zhu

Contrastive learning is a powerful framework for learning self-supervised representations that generalize well to downstream supervised tasks. We show that multiple existing contrastive learning methods can be reinterpreted as learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-16 Daniel D. Johnson , Ayoub El Hanchi , Chris J. Maddison

Estimating treatment effects over time holds significance in various domains, including precision medicine, epidemiology, economy, and marketing. This paper introduces a unique approach to counterfactual regression over time, emphasizing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-30 Mouad El Bouchattaoui , Myriam Tami , Benoit Lepetit , Paul-Henry Cournède

Data-driven decision making frequently relies on predicting counterfactual outcomes. In practice, researchers commonly train counterfactual prediction models on a source dataset to inform decisions on a possibly separate target population.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-07 Keith Barnatchez , Kevin P. Josey , Rachel C. Nethery , Giovanni Parmigiani

To understand the black-box characteristics of deep networks, counterfactual explanation that deduces not only the important features of an input space but also how those features should be modified to classify input as a target class has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-15 Hong-Gyu Jung , Sin-Han Kang , Hee-Dong Kim , Dong-Ok Won , Seong-Whan Lee

Machine learning (ML) holds great potential for accurately forecasting treatment outcomes over time, which could ultimately enable the adoption of more individualized treatment strategies in many practical applications. However, a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-08 Toon Vanderschueren , Alicia Curth , Wouter Verbeke , Mihaela van der Schaar

Recent contrastive methods show significant improvement in self-supervised learning in several domains. In particular, contrastive methods are most effective where data augmentation can be easily constructed e.g. in computer vision.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-09 Konstantinos Kallidromitis , Denis Gudovskiy , Kazuki Kozuka , Iku Ohama , Luca Rigazio

Positivity violations can complicate estimation and interpretation of causal dose-response curves (CDRCs) for continuous interventions. Weighting-based methods are designed to handle limited overlap, but the resulting weighted targets can…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-13 Han Bao , Michael Schomaker

Counterfactual evaluation of novel treatment assignment functions (e.g., advertising algorithms and recommender systems) is one of the most crucial causal inference problems for practitioners. Traditionally, randomized controlled trials…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-24 Ruocheng Guo , Jundong Li , Huan Liu

Observational studies have recently received significant attention from the machine learning community due to the increasingly available non-experimental observational data and the limitations of the experimental studies, such as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-26 Vinod Kumar Chauhan , Soheila Molaei , Marzia Hoque Tania , Anshul Thakur , Tingting Zhu , David A. Clifton
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