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Estimating how a treatment affects different individuals, known as heterogeneous treatment effect estimation, is an important problem in empirical sciences. In the last few years, there has been a considerable interest in adapting machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-18 Christopher Tran , Keith Burghardt , Kristina Lerman , Elena Zheleva

This paper proposes a novel approach for constructing effective personalized policies when the observed data lacks counter-factual information, is biased and possesses many features. The approach is applicable in a wide variety of settings…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-07-11 Onur Atan , William R. Zame , Qiaojun Feng , Mihaela van der Schaar

Causal inference, or counterfactual prediction, is central to decision making in healthcare, policy and social sciences. To de-bias causal estimators with high-dimensional data in observational studies, recent advances suggest the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-20 Shuxi Zeng , Serge Assaad , Chenyang Tao , Shounak Datta , Lawrence Carin , Fan Li

Estimating causal effects of continuous treatments is a common problem in practice, for example, in studying average dose-response functions. Classical analyses typically assume that all confounders are fully observed, whereas in real-world…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-14 Shuyuan Chen , Peng Zhang , Yifan Cui

We study counterfactual regression, which aims to map input features to outcomes under hypothetical scenarios that differ from those observed in the data. This is particularly useful for decision-making when adapting to sudden shifts in…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-08 Kwangho Kim

We propose a novel approach for inferring the individualized causal effects of a treatment (intervention) from observational data. Our approach conceptualizes causal inference as a multitask learning problem; we model a subject's potential…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-06-20 Ahmed M. Alaa , Michael Weisz , Mihaela van der Schaar

Decision-makers are faced with the challenge of estimating what is likely to happen when they take an action. For instance, if I choose not to treat this patient, are they likely to die? Practitioners commonly use supervised learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-02 Peter Schulam , Suchi Saria

Due to cancer's complex nature and variable response to therapy, precision oncology informed by omics sequence analysis has become the current standard of care. However, the amount of data produced for each patients makes it difficult to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-30 Patrick J. Lawrence , Xia Ning

Counterfactual inference for continuous rather than binary treatment variables is more common in real-world causal inference tasks. While there are already some sample reweighting methods based on Marginal Structural Model for eliminating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-15 Yonghe Zhao , Qiang Huang , Haolong Zeng , Yun Pen , Huiyan Sun

In this extended abstract paper, we address the problem of interpretability and targeted regularization in causal machine learning models. In particular, we focus on the problem of estimating individual causal/treatment effects under…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-13 Alberto Caron , Gianluca Baio , Ioanna Manolopoulou

Counterfactual learning is a natural scenario to improve web-based machine translation services by offline learning from feedback logged during user interactions. In order to avoid the risk of showing inferior translations to users, in such…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-12-15 Carolin Lawrence , Pratik Gajane , Stefan Riezler

Evaluating hypothetical statements about how the world would be had a different course of action been taken is arguably one key capability expected from modern AI systems. Counterfactual reasoning underpins discussions in fairness, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-04 Kevin Xia , Yushu Pan , Elias Bareinboim

Motivated by the rising abundance of observational data with continuous treatments, we investigate the problem of estimating the average dose-response curve (ADRF). Available parametric methods are limited in their model space, and previous…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-16 Lizhen Nie , Mao Ye , Qiang Liu , Dan Nicolae

With the widespread accumulation of observational data, researchers obtain a new direction to learn counterfactual effects in many domains (e.g., health care and computational advertising) without Randomized Controlled Trials(RCTs).…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-01 Guanglin Zhou , Lina Yao , Xiwei Xu , Chen Wang , Liming Zhu

To act safely and ethically in the real world, agents must be able to reason about harm and avoid harmful actions. However, to date there is no statistical method for measuring harm and factoring it into algorithmic decisions. In this paper…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-11-03 Jonathan G. Richens , Rory Beard , Daniel H. Thompson

Cancer claims millions of lives yearly worldwide. While many therapies have been made available in recent years, by in large cancer remains unsolved. Exploiting computational predictive models to study and treat cancer holds great promise…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2022-11-22 Alexander Partin , Thomas S. Brettin , Yitan Zhu , Oleksandr Narykov , Austin Clyde , Jamie Overbeek , Rick L. Stevens

Counterfactual explanation is an important Explainable AI technique to explain machine learning predictions. Despite being studied actively, existing optimization-based methods often assume that the underlying machine-learning model is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-06-01 Wenzhuo Yang , Jia Li , Caiming Xiong , Steven C. H. Hoi

Estimating counterfactual outcomes over time from observational data is relevant for many applications (e.g., personalized medicine). Yet, state-of-the-art methods build upon simple long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, thus rendering…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-06 Valentyn Melnychuk , Dennis Frauen , Stefan Feuerriegel

Estimating a unit's responses to interventions with an associated dose, the "conditional average dose response" (CADR), is relevant in a variety of domains, from healthcare to business, economics, and beyond. Such a response typically needs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-29 Christopher Bockel-Rickermann , Toon Vanderschueren , Jeroen Berrevoets , Tim Verdonck , Wouter Verbeke

Learning an individualized dose rule in personalized medicine is a challenging statistical problem. Existing methods often suffer from the curse of dimensionality, especially when the decision function is estimated nonparametrically. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-22 Wenzhuo Zhou , Ruoqing Zhu , Donglin Zeng