Related papers: Queue-reactive Hawkes models for the order flow
We introduce a new framework for multiagent decision-making in queueing systems that leverages the agility and robustness of nonlinear opinion dynamics to break indecision during queue selection and to capture the influence of social…
We investigate the use of Reinforcement Learning for the optimal execution of meta-orders, where the objective is to execute incrementally large orders while minimizing implementation shortfall and market impact over an extended period of…
Multivariate Hawkes Processes (MHPs) are an important class of temporal point processes that have enabled key advances in understanding and predicting social information systems. However, due to their complex modeling of temporal…
One approach to the analysis of stochastic fluctuations in market prices is to model characteristics of investor behaviour and the complex interactions between market participants, with the aim of extracting consequences in the aggregate.…
We present a modified version of the non parametric Hawkes kernel estimation procedure studied in arXiv:1401.0903 that is adapted to slowly decreasing kernels. We show on numerical simulations involving a reasonable number of events that…
We present a Hawkes model approach to foreign exchange market in which the high frequency price dynamics is affected by a self exciting mechanism and an exogenous component, generated by the pre-announced arrival of macroeconomic news. By…
Limit order book (LOB) is a dynamic, event-driven system that records real-time market demand and supply for a financial asset in a stream flow. Event stream prediction in LOB refers to forecasting both the timing and the type of events.…
For a widely used hub-and-spoke closed product-form network consisting of an infinite-server node and several single-server queues, we characterize the maximum queue-length distribution in various operational regimes by leveraging a novel…
We consider a two-dimensional stochastic fluid model with $N$ ON-OFF inputs and temporary assistance, which is an extension of the same model with $N = 1$ in Mahabhashyam et al. (2008). The rates of change of both buffers are piecewise…
Traditionally, Hawkes processes are used to model time--continuous point processes with history dependence. Here we propose an extended model where the self--effects are of both excitatory and inhibitory type and follow a Gaussian Process.…
Hawkes processes are often applied to model dependence and interaction phenomena in multivariate event data sets, such as neuronal spike trains, social interactions, and financial transactions. In the nonparametric setting, learning the…
We derive a continuous time model for the joint evolution of the mid price and the bid-ask spread from a multiscale analysis of the whole limit order book (LOB) dynamics. We model the LOB as a multiclass queueing system and perform our…
We introduce a model-independent approximation for the branching ratio of Hawkes self-exciting point processes. Our estimator requires knowing only the mean and variance of the event count in a sufficiently large time window, statistics…
An overview of the recursive equations based models and their applications in simulation based analysis and optimization of queueing systems is given. These models provide a variety of systems with a convenient and unified representation in…
Motivated by a zero-intelligence approach, the aim of this paper is to connect the microscopic (discrete price and volume), mesoscopic (discrete price and continuous volume) and macroscopic (continuous price and volume) frameworks for the…
Hawkes processes are a popular framework to model the occurrence of sequential events, i.e., occurrence dynamics, in several fields such as social diffusion. In real-world scenarios, the inter-arrival time among events is irregular.…
In this paper we derive a second order approximation for an infinite dimensional limit order book model, in which the dynamics of the incoming order flow is allowed to depend on the current market price as well as on a volume indicator…
We develop a cross-border market model for two countries based on a continuous trading mechanism, in which the transmission capacities that enable transactions between market participants from different countries are limited. Our market…
In recent years, mining the knowledge from asynchronous sequences by Hawkes process is a subject worthy of continued attention, and Hawkes processes based on the neural network have gradually become the most hotly researched fields,…
Multivariate Hawkes processes are a widely used class of self-exciting point processes, but maximum likelihood estimation naively scales as $O(N^2)$ in the number of events. The canonical linear exponential Hawkes process admits a faster…