Related papers: Queue-reactive Hawkes models for the order flow
We introduce and establish the main properties of QHawkes ("Quadratic" Hawkes) models. QHawkes models generalize the Hawkes price models introduced in E. Bacry et al. (2014), by allowing all feedback effects in the jump intensity that are…
Multivariate point processes are widely applied to model event-type data such as natural disasters, online message exchanges, financial transactions or neuronal spike trains. One very popular point process model in which the probability of…
Over the past few decades, the Hawkes process has become a popular framework for modeling temporal events thanks to its flexibility to capture different dependency structures. The objective of this work is to model call sequences emitted by…
We propose a general non-linear order book model that is built from the individual behaviours of the agents. Our framework encompasses Markovian and Hawkes based models. Under mild assumptions, we prove original results on the ergodicity…
Consider an M/M/$s$ queue with the additional feature that the arrival rate is a random variable of which only the mean, variance, and range are known. Using semi-infinite linear programming and duality theory for moment problems, we…
This paper studies a limit order book (LOB) model, in which the order dynamics depend on both, the current best available prices and the current volume density functions. For the joint dynamics of the best bid price, the best ask price, and…
We study the dynamics of order flows around large intraday price changes using ultra-high-frequency data from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. We find a significant reversal of price for both intraday price decreases and increases with a…
We present a general Markovian framework for order book modeling. Through our approach, we aim at providing a tool enabling to get a better understanding of the price formation process and of the link between microscopic and macroscopic…
A univariate Hawkes process is a simple point process that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process is given by the sum of a baseline intensity and another term that depends on the entire past history…
We introduce a point process regression model that is applicable to price models and limit order book models. Hawkes type autoregression in the intensity process is generalized to a stochastic regression to covariate processes. We establish…
Accurately forecasting the direction of financial returns poses a formidable challenge, given the inherent unpredictability of financial time series. The task becomes even more arduous when applied to cryptocurrency returns, given the…
In this paper, we are interested in linear prediction of a particular kind of stochastic process, namely a marked temporal point process. The observations are event times recorded on the real line, with marks attached to each event. We show…
Dynamic jumps in the price and volatility of an asset are modelled using a joint Hawkes process in conjunction with a bivariate jump diffusion. A state space representation is used to link observed returns, plus nonparametric measures of…
The existing literature provides evidence that limit order book data can be used to predict short-term price movements in stock markets. This paper proposes a new neural network architecture for predicting return jump arrivals in equity…
We consider a population of $N$ interacting neurons, represented by a multivariate Hawkes process: the firing rate of each neuron depends on the history of the connected neurons. Contrary to the mean-field framework where the interaction…
We study a system, where a random flow of customers is served by servers (called agents) invited on-demand. Each invited agent arrives into the system after a random time; after each service completion, an agent returns to the system or…
In this paper we develop the first perfect sampling algorithm for queues with Hawkes input, i.e. single-server queues with Hawkes arrivals and i.i.d. service times of general distribution. In addition to the stability condition, we also…
This work studies the effect of hub congestion and time-sensitive demand on a hub-and-spoke location/allocation system. The Hub Location with Congestion and Time-sensitive Demand Problem is introduced, which combines these two main…
We study a make-to-order system with a finite set of customers. Production is stochastic with a nonlinear dependence between the ordered quantity and the production rate. Customers may have to queue until their turn arrives, and therefore…
The paper constructs a multi-variate Hawkes process model of Bitcoin block arrivals and price jumps. Hawkes processes are selfexciting point processes that can capture the self- and cross-excitation effects of block mining and Bitcoin price…