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A prevailing viewpoint in palaeoclimate science is that a single palaeoclimate record contains insufficient information to discriminate between most competing explanatory models. Results we present here suggest the contrary. Using SMC^2…

Applications · Statistics 2018-01-25 Jake Carson , Michel Crucifix , Simon Preston , Richard D. Wilkinson

Functional data analysis, which models data as realizations of random functions over a continuum, has emerged as a useful tool for time series data. Often, the goal is to infer the dynamic connections (or time-varying conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-10 Chunshan Liu , Daniel R. Kowal , James Doss-Gollin , Marina Vannucci

Spatial process models are widely used for modeling point-referenced variables arising from diverse scientific domains. Analyzing the resulting random surface provides deeper insights into the nature of latent dependence within the studied…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-15 Aritra Halder , Sudipto Banerjee , Dipak K. Dey

We introduce a computational efficient data-driven framework suitable for quantifying the uncertainty in physical parameters and model formulation of computer models, represented by differential equations. We construct physics-informed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-01 Michail Spitieris , Ingelin Steinsland

We propose a statistical emulator for a climate-economy deterministic integrated assessment model ensemble, based on a functional regression framework. Inference on the unknown parameters is carried out through a mixed effects hierarchical…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-14 Luca Aiello , Matteo Fontana , Alessandra Guglielmi

Machine learning models have emerged as a very effective strategy to sidestep time-consuming electronic-structure calculations, enabling accurate simulations of greater size, time scale and complexity. Given the interpolative nature of…

First-principles Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling is used to investigate uncertainty quantification and uncertainty propagation in parameters describing hydrogen kinetics. Specifically, we sample the posterior distribution of thirty-one…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-03-12 John Bell , Marcus Day , Jonathan Goodman , Ray Grout , Matthias Morzfeld

Using optimal detection techniques with climate model simulations, most of the observed increase of near surface temperatures over the second half of the twentieth century is attributed to anthropogenic influences. However, the partitioning…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-08-03 Gareth S. Jones , Peter A. Stott , John F. B. Mitchell

Optimal experimental design is a classic topic in statistics, with many well-studied problems, applications, and solutions. The design problem we study is the placement of sensors to monitor spatiotemporal processes, explicitly accounting…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-05 Daniel Waxman , Fernando Llorente , Katia Lamer , Petar M. Djurić

Interpreting data with mathematical models is an important aspect of real-world industrial and applied mathematical modeling. Often we are interested to understand the extent to which a particular set of data informs and constrains model…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-06 Matthew J Simpson , Ruth E Baker

Different factors such as thermal comfort, humidity, air quality, and noise have significant combined effects on the acceptability and quality of the activities performed by the building occupants who spend most of their times indoors.…

The paper deals with an empirical validation of a building thermal model. We put the emphasis on sensitivity analysis and on research of inputs/residual correlation to improve our model. In this article, we apply a sensitivity analysis…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2012-12-24 Thierry Alex Mara , Harry Boyer , François Garde

In this paper, we consider the well known problem of non-linear identification of the rates of the reactions involved in cells with Monod functions. In bioprocesses, generating data is very expensive and long and so it is important to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-08 Kévin Colin , Håkan Hjalmarsson , Véronique Chotteau

The design of reliable indicators to anticipate critical transitions in complex systems is an im portant task in order to detect a coming sudden regime shift and to take action in order to either prevent it or mitigate its consequences. We…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-12-14 Martin Heßler , Oliver Kamps

1. Understanding the mechanisms underlying biological systems, and ultimately, predicting their behaviours in a changing environment requires overcoming the gap between mathematical models and experimental or observational data.…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2017-04-19 Philipp H Boersch-Supan , Sadie J Ryan , Leah R Johnson

Modeling complex physical systems such as they arise in civil engineering applications requires finding a trade-off between physical fidelity and practicality. Consequently, deviations of simulation from measurements are ubiquitous even…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-03-18 Paolo Villani , Daniel Andrés Arcones , Jörg F. Unger , Martin Weiser

Home retrofitting provides a means to improve the basic energy and comfort characteristics of a building stock, which cannot be renewed because of prohibitive costs. We analyze how model predictive control (MPC) applied to indoor…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-10-31 A. Ryzhov , H. Ouerdane , E. Gryazina , A. Bischi , K. Turitsyn

Making the control of building heating systems more energy efficient is crucial for reducing global energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Traditional rule-based control methods use a static, outdoor temperature-dependent heating…

Applications · Statistics 2025-10-17 Emma Hannula , Arttu Häkkinen , Antti Solonen , Felipe Uribe , Jana de Wiljes , Lassi Roininen

Earth's temperature variability can be partitioned into internal and externally-forced components. Yet, underlying mechanisms and their relative contributions remain insufficiently understood, especially on decadal to centennial timescales.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-02-01 Maybritt Schillinger , Beatrice Ellerhoff , Robert Scheichl , Kira Rehfeld

Microstructural models of soft tissue deformation are important in applications including artificial tissue design and surgical planning. The basis of these models, and their advantage over their phenomenological counterparts, is that they…

Biological Physics · Physics 2022-05-06 James Haughton , Simon L. Cotter , William J. Parnell , Tom Shearer