Related papers: A Backward Simulation Method for Stochastic Optima…
Bayesian inference in the presence of an intractable likelihood function is computationally challenging. When following a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to approximate the posterior distribution in this context, one typically…
In this paper, we introduce a new method called SPSC (Simulation, Partitioning, Selection, Cloning) to estimate efficiently the probability of possible solutions in stochastic simulations. This method can be applied to any type of…
Stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) has been a promising solution to complex control problems under uncertain disturbances. However, traditional SMPC approaches either require exact knowledge of probabilistic distributions, or rely…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a powerful tool for sampling from complex probability distributions. Despite its versatility, MCMC often suffers from strong autocorrelation and the negative sign problem, leading to slowing down the…
Stochastic Optimal Control (SOC) problems arise in systems influenced by uncertainty, such as autonomous robots or financial models. Traditional methods like dynamic programming are often intractable for high-dimensional, nonlinear systems…
Simulation Based Calibration (SBC) is applied to analyse two commonly used, competing Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for estimating the posterior distribution of a stochastic volatility model. In particular, the bespoke 'off-set…
Based on the principles of importance sampling and resampling, sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) encompasses a large set of powerful techniques dealing with complex stochastic dynamic systems. Many of these systems possess strong memory, with…
Nested Monte Carlo is widely used for risk estimation, but its efficiency is limited by the discontinuity of the indicator function and high computational cost. This paper proposes a nested Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method combined with…
Model Predictive Control (MPC) offers rigorous safety and performance guarantees but is computationally intensive. Approximate MPC (AMPC) aims to circumvent this drawback by learning a computationally cheaper surrogate policy. Common…
A method for the multifidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) estimation of statistical quantities is proposed which is applicable to computational budgets of any size. Based on a sequence of optimization problems each with a globally minimizing…
Control variates are a well-established tool to reduce the variance of Monte Carlo estimators. However, for large-scale problems including high-dimensional and large-sample settings, their advantages can be outweighed by a substantial…
An algorithm is proposed to solve robust control problems constrained by partial differential equations with uncertain coefficients, based on the so-called MG/OPT framework. The levels in this MG/OPT hierarchy correspond to discretization…
Random sampling of graph partitions under constraints has become a popular tool for evaluating legislative redistricting plans. Analysts detect partisan gerrymandering by comparing a proposed redistricting plan with an ensemble of sampled…
First of all, this paper presents some improvements of DSMC method in the form of new schemes and approaches, that, for a wide class of problems, increase performance and reduce the demands on computer resources. The most important…
In this paper, we propose a new stochastic optimization algorithm for Bayesian inference based on multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods. In Bayesian statistics, biased estimators of the model evidence have been often used as stochastic…
This work considers the stability of nonlinear stochastic receding horizon control when the optimal controller is only computed approximately. A number of general classes of controller approximation error are analysed including…
In many financial applications Quasi Monte Carlo (QMC) based on Sobol low-discrepancy sequences (LDS) outperforms Monte Carlo showing faster and more stable convergence. However, unlike MC QMC lacks a practical error estimate. Randomized…
We propose a Model Predictive Control (MPC) with a single-step prediction horizon to approximate the solution of infinite horizon optimal control problems with the expected sum of convex stage costs for constrained linear uncertain systems.…
Stochastic Optimal Control Problems (SOCPs) plays a major role in the sequential decision-making challenges. There exist various iterative algorithms, under framework of stochastic maximum principle, that sequentially find the optimal…
Computing risk measures of a financial portfolio comprising thousands of derivatives is a challenging problem because (a) it involves a nested expectation requiring multiple evaluations of the loss of the financial portfolio for different…