Related papers: Bayesian sequential least-squares estimation for t…
We consider a singular stochastic control problem, which is called the Monotone Follower Stochastic Control Problem and give sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of a local-time type optimal control. To establish this…
We consider the problem of minimizing a convex function that is evolving according to unknown and possibly stochastic dynamics, which may depend jointly on time and on the decision variable itself. Such problems abound in the machine…
Drift theory is an intuitive tool for reasoning about random processes: It allows turning expected stepwise changes into expected first-hitting times. While drift theory is used extensively by the community studying randomized search…
We study full Bayesian procedures for high-dimensional linear regression under sparsity constraints. The prior is a mixture of point masses at zero and continuous distributions. Under compatibility conditions on the design matrix, the…
This paper derives several formulae for the probability that a Wiener process, which has a stochastic drift and random variance, crosses a one-sided stochastic boundary within a finite time interval. A non-explicit formula is first obtained…
We address the challenge of sequential data-driven decision-making under context distributional uncertainty. This problem arises in numerous real-world scenarios where the learner optimizes black-box objective functions in the presence of…
Sequential change diagnosis is the joint problem of detection and identification of a sudden and unobservable change in the distribution of a random sequence. In this problem, the common probability law of a sequence of i.i.d. random…
We consider the problem to steer a linear dynamical system with full state observation from an initial gaussian distribution in state-space to a final one with minimum energy control. The system is stochastically driven through the control…
We study rates of convergence in central limit theorems for partial sum of functionals of general stationary and non-stationary Gaussian sequences, using optimal tools from analysis on Wiener space. We apply our result to study drift…
In this paper we provide a thorough, rigorous theoretical framework to assess optimality guarantees of sampling-based algorithms for drift control systems: systems that, loosely speaking, can not stop instantaneously due to momentum. We…
We consider the problem of Bayesian inference for bi-variate data observed in time but with observation times which occur non-synchronously. In particular, this occurs in a wide variety of applications in finance, such as high-frequency…
We solve optimal stopping problems for an oscillating Brownian motion, i.e. a diffusion with positive piecewise constant volatility changing at the point $x=0$. Let $\sigma_1$ and $\sigma_2$ denote the volatilities on the negative and…
We consider an optimal control problem, where a Brownian motion with drift is sequentially observed, and the sign of the drift coefficient changes at jump times of a symmetric two-state Markov process. The Markov process itself is not…
We study a finite-horizon stochastic control criterion for non-convex optimization in which Brownian exploration is balanced against a quadratic control cost. Rather than emphasizing the classical Hopf--Cole representation, we isolate the…
The problem of sequential probability forecasting is considered in the most general setting: a model set C is given, and it is required to predict as well as possible if any of the measures (environments) in C is chosen to generate the…
Formulating a statistical inverse problem as one of inference in a Bayesian model has great appeal, notably for what this brings in terms of coherence, the interpretability of regularisation penalties, the integration of all uncertainties,…
This paper studies quasi Bayesian estimation and uncertainty quantification for an unknown function that is identified by a nonparametric conditional moment restriction. We derive contraction rates for a class of Gaussian process priors.…
In this paper we give solution to the quickest drift change detection problem for a L\'evy process consisting of both a continuous Gaussian part and a jump component. We consider here Bayesian framework with an exponential a priori…
The forward prediction problem for a binary time series $\{X_n\}_{n=0}^{\infty}$ is to estimate the probability that $X_{n+1}=1$ based on the observations $X_i$, $0\le i\le n$ without prior knowledge of the distribution of the process…
Bayesian inference provides a framework to combine various model components with shared parameters, allowing joint uncertainty estimation and the use of all available data sources. Unfortunately, misspecification of any part of the model…