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Mathematical models of the scientific citation process predict a strong "first-mover" effect under which the first papers in a field will, essentially regardless of content, receive citations at a rate enormously higher than papers…
Analyzing a large data set of publications drawn from the most competitive journals in the natural and social sciences we show that research careers exhibit the broad distributions of individual achievement characteristic of systems in…
Forecasting the popularity of new songs has become a standard practice in the music industry and provides a comparative advantage for those that do it well. Considerable efforts were put into machine learning prediction models for that…
Reputation is an important social construct in science, which enables informed quality assessments of both publications and careers of scientists in the absence of complete systemic information. However, the relation between reputation and…
Data bias, e.g., popularity impairs the dynamics of two-sided markets within recommender systems. This overshadows the less visible but potentially intriguing long-tail items that could capture user interest. Despite the abundance of…
Decision-makers often act in response to data-driven predictions, with the goal of achieving favorable outcomes. In such settings, predictions don't passively forecast the future; instead, predictions actively shape the distribution of…
Predictive Process Monitoring (PPM) is a key task in Process Mining that aims to predict future behavior, outcomes, or performance indicators. Accurate prediction of the latter is critical for proactive decision-making. Given that processes…
Recent advances in the quantitative, computational methodology for the modeling and analysis of heterogeneous large-scale data are leading to new opportunities for understanding of human behaviors and faculties, including the manifestation…
Researchers today have found out the importance of Artificial Intelligence, and Machine Learning in our daily lives, as well as they can be used to improve the quality of our lives as well as the cities and nations alike. An example of this…
In some agent designs like inverse reinforcement learning an agent needs to learn its own reward function. Learning the reward function and optimising for it are typically two different processes, usually performed at different stages. We…
Gender discrimination in the hiring process is one significant factor contributing to labor market disparities. However, there is little evidence on the extent to which gender bias by hiring managers is responsible for these disparities. In…
This paper explains in layperson's terms how an agent-based model was used to investigate the hypothesis that culture evolves more effectively when novelty-generating creative processes are tempered by imitation processes that preserve…
Efficient action prediction is of central importance for the fluent workflow between humans and equally so for human-robot interaction. To achieve prediction, actions can be encoded by a series of events, where every event corresponds to a…
Performing arts organizations aim to enrich their communities through the arts. To do this, they strive to match their performance offerings to the taste of those communities. Success relies on understanding audience preference and…
Throughout history, a relatively small number of individuals have made a profound and lasting impact on science and society. Despite long-standing, multi-disciplinary interests in understanding careers of elite scientists, there have been…
Proper scoring rules incentivize experts to accurately report beliefs, assuming predictions cannot influence outcomes. We relax this assumption and investigate incentives when predictions are performative, i.e., when they can influence the…
Movie ratings play an important role both in determining the likelihood of a potential viewer to watch the movie and in reflecting the current viewer satisfaction with the movie. They are available in several sources like the television…
Job security can never be taken for granted, especially in times of rapid, widespread and unexpected social and economic change. These changes can force workers to transition to new jobs. This may be because new technologies emerge or…
A good prediction is very important for scientific, economic, and administrative purposes. It is therefore necessary to know whether a predictor is skillful enough to predict the future. Given the increased reliance on predictions in…
In an article written five years ago [arXiv:0809.0522], we described a method for predicting which scientific papers will be highly cited in the future, even if they are currently not highly cited. Applying the method to real citation data…