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Machine learning is now ubiquitous in societal decision-making, for example in evaluating job candidates or loan applications, and it is increasingly important to take into account how classified agents will react to the learning…
Gender representation in mass media has long been mainly studied by qualitatively analyzing content. This article illustrates how automated computational methods may be used in this context to scale up such empirical observations and…
The dynamical evolution of many economic, sociological, biological and physical systems tends to be dominated by a relatively small number of unexpected, large changes (`extreme events'). We study the large, internal changes produced in a…
Using data on 103 recent P4 college football hires, we built a statistical model for predicting a coach's success at their new school. For each hire, we collected data about their background and experiences, the previous success as a head…
A central problem in business concerns the optimal allocation of limited resources to a set of available tasks, where the payoff of these tasks is inherently uncertain. In credit card fraud detection, for instance, a bank can only assign a…
The fashion industry is one of the most active and competitive markets in the world, manufacturing millions of products and reaching large audiences every year. A plethora of business processes are involved in this large-scale industry, but…
Despite persistent efforts to understand the dynamics of creativity of scientists over careers in terms of productivity, impact, and prize, little is known about the dynamics of scientists' disruptive efforts that affect individual academic…
Changing institutions is an integral part of an academic life. Yet little is known about the mobility patterns of scientists at an institutional level and how these career choices affect scientific outcomes. Here, we examine over 420,000…
Recommender systems have gained increasing attention to personalise consumer preferences. While these systems have primarily focused on applications such as advertisement recommendations (e.g., Google), personalized suggestions (e.g.,…
Performative predictions influence the very outcomes they aim to forecast. We study performative predictions that affect a sample (e.g., only existing users of an app) and/or the whole population (e.g., all potential app users). This raises…
Rapid technological innovation threatens to leave much of the global workforce behind. Today's economy juxtaposes white-hot demand for skilled labor against stagnant employment prospects for workers unprepared to participate in a digital…
Casting machine learning as a type of search, we demonstrate that the proportion of problems that are favorable for a fixed algorithm is strictly bounded, such that no single algorithm can perform well over a large fraction of them. Our…
Urban economists have put forward the idea that cities that are culturally interesting tend to attract "the creative class" and, as a result, end up being economically successful. Yet it is still unclear how economic and cultural dynamics…
The distribution of efficient individuals in the economy and the efforts that they will put in if they are hired, there are two important concerns for a technologically advanced firm. wants to open a new branch. The firm does not have…
Prices in financial markets exhibit extreme jumps far more often than can be accounted for by external news. Further, magnitudes of price changes are correlated over long times. These so called stylized facts are quantified by scaling laws…
Predicting future observations plays a central role in machine learning, biology, economics, and many other fields. It lies at the heart of organizational principles such as the variational free energy principle and has even been shown --…
Measured aggregate productivity and the income share of top earners are strongly and positively correlated in the Canadian data. Productivity slowdown since the early 2000s was accompanied with a flattening income share of top earners.…
Effective teamwork is essential in structured, performance-driven environments, from professional organizations to high-stakes competitive settings. As tasks grow more complex, achieving high performance requires not only technical…
This study aims to determine a predictive model to learn students probability to pass their courses taken at the earliest stage of the semester. To successfully discover a good predictive model with high acceptability, accurate, and…
It has been assumed that arbitrage profits are not possible in efficient markets, because future prices are not predictable. Here we show that predictability alone is not a sufficient measure of market efficiency. We instead propose to…