Related papers: Modelling Italian mortality rates with a geometric…
We design numerical schemes for a class of slow-fast systems of stochastic differential equations, where the fast component is an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and the slow component is driven by a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst index…
We provide a probabilistic SIRD model for the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy, where we allow the infection, recovery and death rates to be random. In particular, the underlying random factor is driven by a fractional Brownian motion. Our model…
Several approaches have been developed for forecasting mortality using the stochastic model. In particular, the Lee-Carter model has become widely used and there have been various extensions and modifications proposed to attain a broader…
In this paper we construct a framework for doing statistical inference for discretely observed stochastic differential equations (SDEs) where the driving noise has 'memory'. Classical SDE models for inference assume the driving noise to be…
We study the estimation of the invariant density of additive fractional stochastic differential equations with Hurst parameter $H \in (0,1)$. We first focus on continuous observations and develop a kernel-based estimator achieving faster…
We consider a fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process involving a stochastic forcing term in the drift, as a solution of a linear stochastic differential equation driven by a fractional Brownian motion. For such process we specify mean and…
Stochastic averaging for a class of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with fractional Brownian motion, of the Hurst parameter H in the interval (1/2, 1), is investigated. An averaged SDE for the original SDE is proposed, and their…
We study a generalization of the Brownian bridge as a stochastic process that models the position and velocity of inertial particles between the two end-points of a time interval. The particles experience random acceleration and are assumed…
In this paper, we analyze the use of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to model dynamical systems subjected to bounded noisy perturbations. In order to discuss the main characteristics of this new approach we consider some basic models in…
We investigate the problem of joint statistical estimation of several parameters for a stochastic differential equation driven by an additive fractional Brownian motion. Based on discrete-time observations of the model, we construct an…
Motivated by the modeling of the temporal structure of the velocity field in a highly turbulent flow, we propose and study a linear stochastic differential equation that involves the ingredients of a Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, supplemented…
Let the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process $(X_t)_{t\ge0}$ driven by a fractional Brownian motion $B^{H }$, described by $dX_t = -\theta X_t dt + \sigma dB_t^{H }$ be observed at discrete time instants $t_k=kh$, $k=0, 1, 2, \cdots, 2n+2 $. We…
In this paper, we will first give the numerical simulation of the sub-fractional Brownian motion through the relation of fractional Brownian motion instead of its representation of random walk. In order to verify the rationality of this…
We study the strong approximation of a rough volatility model, in which the log-volatility is given by a fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with Hurst parameter $H<1/2$. Our methods are based on an equidistant discretization of the…
We study stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) with potentially very rough fractional noise with Hurst parameter $H\in(0,1)$. Close to a change of stability measured with a small parameter $\varepsilon$, we rely on the natural…
Starting from the notion of multivariate fractional Brownian Motion introduced in [F. Lavancier, A. Philippe, and D. Surgailis. Covariance function of vector self-similar processes. Statistics & Probability Letters, 2009] we define a…
In this work we present a Gaussian process that arise from the iteration of p fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes generated by the same fractional Brownian motion. This iteration results, when the values of lambdas are pairwise…
We introduce the elliptical Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process, which is a generalisation of the well-known univariate OU process to bivariate time series. This process maps out elliptical stochastic oscillations over time in the complex…
Demographic projections of future mortality rates involve a high level of uncertainty and require stochastic mortality models. The current paper investigates forward mortality models driven by a (possibly infinite dimensional) Wiener…
Stochastic models with fractional Brownian motion as source of randomness have become popular since the early 2000s. Fractional Brownian motion (fBm) is a Gaussian process, whose covariance depends on the so-called Hurst parameter $H\in…