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Football forecasting models traditionally rate teams on past match results, that is based on the number of goals scored. Goals, however, involve a high element of chance and thus past results often do not reflect the performances of the…

Applications · Statistics 2021-01-07 Edward Wheatcroft , Ewelina Sienkiewicz

Over the past two decades, significant strides have been made in stochastic problems such as revenue-optimal auction design and prophet inequalities, traditionally modeled with $n$ independent random variables to represent the values of $n$…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-06-11 Vasilis Livanos , Kalen Patton , Sahil Singla

We consider the fundamental scenario where a single item is to be sold to one of two agents. Both agents draw their valuation for the item from the same probability distribution. However, only one of them submits a bid to the mechanism. The…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-08-26 Ioannis Caragiannis , Georgios Kalantzis

We initiate the study of incentive-compatible forecasting competitions in which multiple forecasters make predictions about one or more events and compete for a single prize. We have two objectives: (1) to incentivize forecasters to report…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2021-09-09 Jens Witkowski , Rupert Freeman , Jennifer Wortman Vaughan , David M. Pennock , Andreas Krause

Apportionment is the act of distributing the seats of a legislature among political parties (or states) in proportion to their vote shares (or populations). A famous impossibility by Balinski and Young (2001) shows that no apportionment…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-05-07 José Correa , Paul Gölz , Ulrike Schmidt-Kraepelin , Jamie Tucker-Foltz , Victor Verdugo

In this article, we look at a hat-guessing game, in which each player must guess the color of their own hat while only seeing the hats of the other players. We focus on the case of two hat colors and a countably infinite number of players.…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-28 Nathaniel Eldredge

Is there a joint distribution of $n$ random variables over the natural numbers, such that they always form an increasing sequence and whenever you take two subsets of the set of random variables of the same cardinality, their distribution…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2015-02-13 Sune K. Jakobsen

Consider $2k-1$ voters, each of which has a preference ranking between $n$ given alternatives. An alternative $A$ is called a Condorcet winner, if it wins against every other alternative $B$ in majority voting (meaning that for every other…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2022-03-28 Lisa Sauermann

Estimating a large alphabet probability distribution from a limited number of samples is a fundamental problem in machine learning and statistics. A variety of estimation schemes have been proposed over the years, mostly inspired by the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-08-20 Amichai Painsky , Meir Feder

This paper analyzes a simple game with $n$ players. We fix a mean, $\mu$, in the interval $[0, 1]$ and let each player choose any random variable distributed on that interval with the given mean. The winner of the zero-sum game is the…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-04-24 Artem Hulko , Mark Whitmeyer

In various situations, decision makers face experts that may provide conflicting advice. This advice may be in the form of probabilistic forecasts over critical future events. We consider a setting where the two forecasters provide their…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2020-02-14 Itay Kavaler , Rann Smorodinsky

We add the assumption that players know their opponents' payoff functions and rationality to a model of non-equilibrium learning in signaling games. Agents are born into player roles and play against random opponents every period.…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2020-01-16 Drew Fudenberg , Kevin He

We extend the standard online worst-case model to accommodate past experience which is available to the online player in many practical scenarios. We do this by revealing a random sample of the adversarial input to the online player ahead…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2019-07-12 Haim Kaplan , David Naori , Danny Raz

In Hotelling's model of spatial competition, a unit mass of voters is distributed in the interval $[0,1]$ (with their location corresponding to their political persuasion), and each of $m$ candidates selects as a strategy his distinct…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-05-09 Umang Bhaskar , Soumyajit Pyne

A casino offers the following game. There are three cups each containing a die. You are being told that the dice in the cups are all the same, but possibly nonstandard. For a bet of \$1, the game master shakes all three cups and lets you…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-16 Pierre C Bellec , Tobias Fritz

We study a dynamic game where an expert sends probabilistic forecasts to a decision-maker. The decision-maker verifies these forecasts using a calibration test based on past data. How should the expert send forecasts to maximize her payoff…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-05-13 Atulya Jain , Vianney Perchet

We study the polynomial-time approximability of the optimal online stochastic bipartite matching algorithm, initiated by Papadimitriou et al. (EC'21). Here, nodes on one side of the graph are given upfront, while at each time $t$, an online…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2024-07-23 Mark Braverman , Mahsa Derakhshan , Tristan Pollner , Amin Saberi , David Wajc

Yager[5] proposed a transformation for opposing(negating) the occurence of an event that is not certain using the idea that one can oppose the occurence of any uncertain event by allocating its probability among the other outcomes in the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-04-01 Amit Srivastava

Consider a two-player game repeated N times. Player 1 can choose between two styles (for interpretability, offensive and defensive), whereas Player 2 uses a single fixed style. Let X N\,:= \#wins -\#losses for Player 1 after N games, and…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2026-04-20 Jonatha ANSELMI , Bruno Gaujal

Lotteries are a prevalent form of gambling between a seller and buyers. Designing a lottery requires a model of how buyers make decisions when confronted with uncertain outcomes. Cumulative prospect theory (CPT) is a descriptive model that…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Shunta Akiyama , Mitsuaki Obara , Yasushi Kawase