Related papers: Exact Solution to a Dynamic SIR Model
We consider the SIR model and study the first time the number of infected individuals begins to decrease and the first time this population is below a given threshold. We interpret these times as functions of the initial susceptible and…
In this paper, we conduct mathematical and numerical analyses to address the following crucial questions for COVID-19: (Q1) Is it possible to contain COVID-19? (Q2) When will be the peak and the end of the epidemic? (Q3) How do the…
A stochastic SIR epidemic model taking into account the heterogeneity of the spatial environment is constructed. The deterministic model is given by a partial differential equation and the stochastic one by a space-time jump Markov process.…
In this work, we review the figures used to characterize an epidemic outbreak most. Particular attention is drawn to epidemic spreading at time-varying transition rates. A time-varying SIR-like model is used to describe the epidemic…
We study a multilayer SIR model with two levels of mixing, namely a global level which is uniformly mixing, and a local level with two layers distinguishing household and workplace contacts, respectively. We establish the large population…
The recent COVID-19 pandemic has promoted vigorous scientific activity in an effort to understand, advice and control the pandemic. Data is now freely available at a staggering rate worldwide. Unfortunately, this unprecedented level of…
This paper deals with a new epidemiological model of SIRS with stochastic perturbations. The primary objective is to establish the existence of a unique non-negative nonlocal solution. Using the basic reproduction number $\mathscr{R}_0$…
Over the past several decades there has been a proliferation of epidemiological models with ordinary derivatives replaced by fractional derivatives in an an-hoc manner. These models may be mathematically interesting but their relevance is…
Multiple viruses are widely studied because of their negative effect on the health of host as well as on whole population. The dynamics of coinfection is important in this case. We formulated a SIR model that describes the coinfection of…
In this paper, we consider a compartmental SIRS epidemic model with asymptomatic infection and seasonal succession, which is a periodic discontinuous differential system. The basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_0$ is defined and valuated…
In this paper, we introduce a novel numerical approach for approximating the SIR model in epidemiology. Our method enhances the existing linearization procedure by incorporating a suitable relaxation term to tackle the transcendental…
We investigate SIR models with vital dynamics, reinfection, and randomness at the transmission coefficient and recruitment rate. Initially, we conduct an extensive analysis of the autonomous scenario, covering aspects such as local and…
A family of discrete non-autonomous SIRVS models with general incidence is obtained from a continuous family of models by applying Mickens non-standard discretization method. Conditions for the permanence and extinction of the disease and…
Although modeling studies are focused on the control of SIR-based systems describing epidemic data sets (particularly the COVID-19), few of them present a formal dynamic characterization in terms of equilibrium sets and stability. Such…
We study two simple mathematical models of the epidemic. At first, we study the repetitive infection spreading in a simplified SIRS model including the effect of the decay of the acquired immune. The model is an intermediate model of the…
The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) equations and their extensions comprise a commonly utilized set of models for understanding and predicting the course of an epidemic. In practice, it is of substantial interest to estimate the…
To better describe the spread of a disease, we extend a discrete time stochastic SIR-type epidemic model of Tuckwell and Williams. We assume the dependence on time of the number of daily encounters and include a parameter to represent a…
The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need to improve the modeling, estimation, and prediction of how infectious diseases spread. SEIR-like models have been particularly successful in providing accurate short-term predictions. This study…
We analytically study the SEIR (Susceptible Exposed Infectious Removed) epidemic model. The aim is to provide simple analytical expressions for the peak and asymptotic values and their characteristic times of the populations affected by the…
A plethora of prediction models of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic were proposed in the past. Prediction performances not only depend on the structure and features of the model, but also on its parametrization. Official databases are often biased due…