Related papers: GARCH density and functional forecasts
Auto-regressive conditionally heteroskedastic (ARCH) family models are still used, by practitioners in business and economic policy making, as a conditional volatility forecasting models. Furthermore ARCH models still are attracting an…
During the last decades there has been increasing interest in modeling the volatility of financial data. Several parametric models have been proposed to this aim, starting from ARCH, GARCH and their variants, but often it is hard to…
In this paper we use Gaussian Process (GP) regression to propose a novel approach for predicting volatility of financial returns by forecasting the envelopes of the time series. We provide a direct comparison of their performance to…
Here, we have analysed a GARCH(1,1) model with the aim to fit higher order moments for different companies' stock prices. When we assume a gaussian conditional distribution, we fail to capture any empirical data when fitting the first three…
Let $(X_n)_{n\in \mathbb Z}$ be a GARCH process with $E(X_0^4)<\infty$, and let $\mu_n$ denote the distribution of $\frac 1{{\sqrt n}}\sum_{i=1}^n [X_i^2-\mathbb E(X_0^2)]$. We derive a numerical approximation of $\mu_n$ when $x_1,...,x_n$…
Gaussian processes are a powerful framework for quantifying uncertainty and for sequential decision-making but are limited by the requirement of solving linear systems. In general, this has a cubic cost in dataset size and is sensitive to…
This survey reviews the existing literature on the most relevant Bayesian inference methods for univariate and multivariate GARCH models. The advantages and drawbacks of each procedure are outlined as well as the advantages of the Bayesian…
In this paper, we introduce the notion of Gaussian processes indexed by probability density functions for extending the Mat\'ern family of covariance functions. We use some tools from information geometry to improve the efficiency and the…
This paper proposes an innovative threshold measurement equation to be employed in a Realized-GARCH framework. The proposed framework incorporates a nonlinear threshold regression specification to consider the leverage effect and model the…
Heteroskedasticity is a common feature of financial time series and is commonly addressed in the model building process through the use of ARCH and GARCH processes. More recently multivariate variants of these processes have been in the…
Gaussian processes are a natural way of defining prior distributions over functions of one or more input variables. In a simple nonparametric regression problem, where such a function gives the mean of a Gaussian distribution for an…
This study seeks to advance the understanding and prediction of stock market return uncertainty through the application of advanced deep learning techniques. We introduce a novel deep learning model that utilizes a Gaussian mixture…
Examples with bound information on the regression function and density abound in many real applications. We propose a novel approach for estimating such functions by incorporating the prior knowledge on the bounds. Specially, a Gaussian…
Covariate measurement error in nonparametric regression is a common problem in nutritional epidemiology and geostatistics, and other fields. Over the last two decades, this problem has received substantial attention in the frequentist…
This paper develops and estimates a multivariate affine GARCH(1,1) model with Normal Inverse Gaussian innovations that captures time-varying volatility, heavy tails, and dynamic correlation across asset returns. We generalize the…
We propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric method for hierarchical modelling on a set of related density functions, where grouped data in the form of samples from each density function are available. Borrowing strength across the groups is a…
The $GARCH$ algorithm is the most renowned generalisation of Engle's original proposal for modelising {\it returns}, the $ARCH$ process. Both cases are characterised by presenting a time dependent and correlated variance or {\it…
The generation of multi-step density forecasts for non-Gaussian data mostly relies on Monte Carlo simulations which are computationally intensive. Using aggregated wind power in Ireland, we study two approaches of multi-step density…
Gaussian process regression is a frequently used statistical method for flexible yet fully probabilistic non-linear regression modeling. A common obstacle is its computational complexity which scales poorly with the number of observations.…
We consider a prior for nonparametric Bayesian estimation which uses finite random series with a random number of terms. The prior is constructed through distributions on the number of basis functions and the associated coefficients. We…