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We introduce a powerful and flexible MCMC algorithm for stochastic simulation. The method builds on a pseudo-marginal method originally introduced in [Genetics 164 (2003) 1139--1160], showing how algorithms which are approximations to an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-04-01 Christophe Andrieu , Gareth O. Roberts

We consider the problem of estimating expectations with respect to a target distribution with an unknown normalizing constant, and where even the unnormalized target needs to be approximated at finite resolution. Under such an assumption,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-06-29 Xinzhu Liang , Shangda Yang , Simon L. Cotter , Kody J. H. Law

This paper proposes a new theory and methodology to tackle the problem of unifying distributed analyses and inferences on shared parameters from multiple sources, into a single coherent inference. This surprisingly challenging problem…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-22 Hongsheng Dai , Murray Pollock , Gareth Roberts

We present two Monte Carlo sampling algorithms for probabilistic inference that guarantee polynomial-time convergence for a larger class of network than current sampling algorithms provide. These new methods are variants of the known…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-18 Malcolm Pradhan , Paul Dagum

This work introduces a new method designed for Bayesian deep learning called scalable Bayesian Monte Carlo (SBMC). The method is comprised of a model and an algorithm. The model interpolates between a point estimator and the posterior. The…

Many machine learning problems involve Monte Carlo gradient estimators. As a prominent example, we focus on Monte Carlo variational inference (MCVI) in this paper. The performance of MCVI crucially depends on the variance of its stochastic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-07-05 Alexander Buchholz , Florian Wenzel , Stephan Mandt

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a class of techniques to sample approximately from any sequence of probability distributions using a combination of importance sampling and resampling steps. This paper is concerned with the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-03-05 Pierre Del Moral , Arnaud Doucet , Ajay Jasra

We present a new quantum Monte Carlo algorithm suitable for generically complex problems, such as systems coupled to external magnetic fields or anyons in two spatial dimensions. We find that the choice of gauge plays a nontrivial role, and…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-10-22 Lizeng Zhang , Geoff Canright , Ted Barnes

Many probabilistic models of interest in scientific computing and machine learning have expensive, black-box likelihoods that prevent the application of standard techniques for Bayesian inference, such as MCMC, which would require access to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-30 Luigi Acerbi

Estimating Monte Carlo error is critical to valid simulation results in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and initial sequence estimators were one of the first methods introduced for this. Over the last few years, focus has been on…

Computation · Statistics 2025-07-08 Arka Banerjee , Dootika Vats

One of the open challenges in quantum computing is to find meaningful and practical methods to leverage quantum computation to accelerate classical machine learning workflows. A ubiquitous problem in machine learning workflows is sampling…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-08-08 Owen Lockwood , Peter Weiss , Filip Aronshtein , Guillaume Verdon

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating expectations with respect to continuous un-normalized probability distributions. MCMC estimators typically have higher variance than…

Computation · Statistics 2020-03-04 Dan Piponi , Matthew D. Hoffman , Pavel Sountsov

The past few years have seen considerable progress in algorithmic development for the generation of gauge fields including the effects of dynamical fermions. The Rational Hybrid Monte Carlo (RHMC) algorithm, where Hybrid Monte Carlo is…

High Energy Physics - Lattice · Physics 2008-11-26 M. A. Clark

The author's presentation of multilevel Monte Carlo path simulation at the MCQMC 2006 conference stimulated a lot of research into multilevel Monte Carlo methods. This paper reviews the progress since then, emphasising the simplicity,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2013-04-22 Michael B. Giles

Hierarchical Bayesian models based on Gaussian processes are considered useful for describing complex nonlinear statistical dependencies among variables in real-world data. However, effective Monte Carlo algorithms for inference with these…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-11 Takashi Hayakawa , Satoshi Asai

We explore the construction of new symplectic numerical integration schemes to be used in Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and study their efficiency. Two integration schemes from Blanes et al. (2014), and a new scheme based on optimal acceptance…

Computation · Statistics 2016-08-26 Janne Mannseth , Tore Selland Kleppe , Hans J. Skaug

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is an invaluable means of inference with complicated models, and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, in particular Riemannian Manifold Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (RMHMC), has demonstrated impressive success in many…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-02 M. J. Betancourt

In online clustering problems, there is often a large amount of uncertainty over possible cluster assignments that cannot be resolved until more data are observed. This difficulty is compounded when clusters follow complex distributions, as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-17 Connie Trojan , Pavel Myshkov , Paul Fearnhead , James Hensman , Tom Minka , Christopher Nemeth

A novel algorithm for computing the action of a matrix exponential over a vector is proposed. The algorithm is based on a multilevel Monte Carlo method, and the vector solution is computed probabilistically generating suitable random paths…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-07-05 Juan A. Acebron , Jose R. Herrero , Jose Monteiro

We propose a methodology to parallelize Hamiltonian Monte Carlo estimators. Our approach constructs a pair of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo chains that are coupled in such a way that they meet exactly after some random number of iterations. These…

Computation · Statistics 2018-08-28 Jeremy Heng , Pierre E. Jacob
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