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We consider the problem of learning the network of mutual excitations (i.e., the dependency graph) in a non-stationary, multivariate Hawkes process. We consider a general setting where baseline rates at each node are time-varying and delay…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-21 Elchanan Mossel , Anirudh Sridhar

Existing deepfake detectors face several challenges in achieving robustness and generalization. One of the primary reasons is their limited ability to extract relevant information from forgery videos, especially in the presence of various…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-05-01 Zhiyuan Yan , Peng Sun , Yubo Lang , Shuo Du , Shanzhuo Zhang , Wei Wang , Lei Liu

Granger causal modeling is an emerging topic that can uncover Granger causal relationship behind multivariate time series data. In many real-world systems, it is common to encounter a large amount of multivariate time series data collected…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-11 Yunfei Chu , Xiaowei Wang , Jianxin Ma , Kunyang Jia , Jingren Zhou , Hongxia Yang

Time series forecasting is a significant problem in many applications, e.g., financial predictions and business optimization. Modern datasets can have multiple correlated time series, which are often generated with global (shared)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-10 Ling Chen , Weiqi Chen , Binqing Wu , Youdong Zhang , Bo Wen , Chenghu Yang

In complex multivariate systems, interactions among variables are defined by dependency structures, often encoded as directed acyclic graphs ($\text{DAGs}$). However, dependency structures can vary across subjects, and ignoring this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-20 Honglin Du , Muxuan Liang , Xiang Zhong

We present the Temporal Graph Benchmark (TGB), a collection of challenging and diverse benchmark datasets for realistic, reproducible, and robust evaluation of machine learning models on temporal graphs. TGB datasets are of large scale,…

Traffic flow prediction is an essential task in constructing smart cities and is a typical Multivariate Time Series (MTS) Problem. Recent research has abandoned Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) and utilized dilated convolutions or temporal…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-04-19 Wenfeng Zhang , Xin Li , Anqi Li , Xiaoting Huang , Ti Wang , Honglei Gao

Real-world problems, for example in climate applications, often require causal reasoning on spatially gridded time series data or data with comparable structure. While the underlying system is often believed to behave similarly at different…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-16 Martin Rabel , Jakob Runge

Graph-based causal discovery methods aim to capture conditional independencies consistent with the observed data and differentiate causal relationships from indirect or induced ones. Successful construction of graphical models of data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-08 Boris Hayete , Fred Gruber , Anna Decker , Raymond Yan

Multivariate time series analysis is an important problem in data mining because of its widespread applications. With the increase of time series data available for training, implementing deep neural networks in the field of time series…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-25 Chao Yang , Mingxing Jiang , Zhongwen Guo , Yuan Liu

Discovering causal relationships between different variables from time series data has been a long-standing challenge for many domains such as climate science, finance, and healthcare. Given the complexity of real-world relationships and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-27 Wenbo Gong , Joel Jennings , Cheng Zhang , Nick Pawlowski

Multivariate time series analysis is becoming an integral part of data analysis pipelines. Understanding the individual time point connections between covariates as well as how these connections change in time is non-trivial. To this aim,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-04 Federico Ciech , Veronica Tozzo

Anomaly detection of multivariate time series is meaningful for system behavior monitoring. This paper proposes an anomaly detection method based on unsupervised Short- and Long-term Mask Representation learning (SLMR). The main idea is to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-24 Qiucheng Miao , Chuanfu Xu , Jun Zhan , Dong Zhu , Chengkun Wu

Identifying causal relations among multi-variate time series is one of the most important elements towards understanding the complex mechanisms underlying the dynamic system. It provides critical tools for forecasting, simulations and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-22 Yang Sun , Yifan Xie

Dynamic graph embedding has gained great attention recently due to its capability of learning low dimensional graph representations for complex temporal graphs with high accuracy. However, recent advances mostly focus on learning node…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-29 Mengjia Xu , Apoorva Vikram Singh , George Em Karniadakis

Temporal point process as the stochastic process on continuous domain of time is commonly used to model the asynchronous event sequence featuring with occurrence timestamps. Thanks to the strong expressivity of deep neural networks, they…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-25 Haitao Lin , Cheng Tan , Lirong Wu , Zhangyang Gao , Zicheng Liu , Stan. Z. Li

Many real-world networks represent dynamic systems with interactions that change over time, often in uncoordinated ways and at irregular intervals. For example, university students connect in intermittent groups that repeatedly form and…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-06-27 Ulf Aslak , Martin Rosvall , Sune Lehmann

Estimation of the conditional independence graph (CIG) of high-dimensional multivariate Gaussian time series from multi-attribute data is considered. Existing methods for graph estimation for such data are based on single-attribute models…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-09 Jitendra K. Tugnait

We present a dynamic prediction framework for binary sequences that is based on a Bernoulli generalization of the auto-regressive process. Our approach lends itself easily to variants of the standard link prediction problem for a sequence…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-24 Xiaohan Yan , Avleen S. Bijral

We introduce a general framework for leveraging graph stream data for temporal prediction-based applications. Our proposed framework includes novel methods for learning an appropriate graph time-series representation, modeling and weighting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-22 Di Jin , Sungchul Kim , Ryan A. Rossi , Danai Koutra