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A central challenge in physics is to describe non-equilibrium systems driven by randomness, such as a randomly growing interface, or fluids subject to random fluctuations that account e.g. for local stresses and heat fluxes not related to…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2022-02-16 Mickaël D. Chekroun , Honghu Liu , James C. McWilliams , Shouhong Wang

First-passage probability estimation of high-dimensional nonlinear stochastic systems is a significant task to be solved in many science and engineering fields, but remains still an open challenge. The present paper develops a novel…

Variational inference approximates the posterior distribution of a probabilistic model with a parameterized density by maximizing a lower bound for the model evidence. Modern solutions fit a flexible approximation with stochastic gradient…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-13 Joseph Sakaya , Arto Klami

Understanding intermittency of turbulent systems from the underlying differential equations is an outstanding problem in fluid dynamics. Here, in the example of Burgers turbulence as a stringent test, we introduce a method that yields…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2026-04-08 Timo Schorlepp , Rainer Grauer

The advection and mixing of a scalar quantity by fluid flow is an important problem in engineering and natural sciences. If the fluid is turbulent, the statistics of the passive scalar exhibit complex behavior. This paper is concerned with…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2022-07-13 Mnerh Alqahtani , Leonardo Grigorio , Tobias Grafke

We introduce and test an algorithm that adaptively estimates large deviation functions characterizing the fluctuations of additive functionals of Markov processes in the long-time limit. These functions play an important role for predicting…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-03-30 Grégoire Ferré , Hugo Touchette

We address the question whether one can identify instantons in direct numerical simulations of the stochastically driven Burgers equation. For this purpose, we first solve the instanton equations using the Chernykh-Stepanov method [Phys.…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2015-06-11 Tobias Grafke , Rainer Grauer , Tobias Schäfer

Sampling synthetic turbulent fields as a computationally tractable surrogate for direct numerical simulations (DNS) is an important practical problem in various applications, and allows to test our physical understanding of the main…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2025-11-19 Timo Schorlepp , Katharina Kormann , Jeremiah Lübke , Tobias Schäfer , Rainer Grauer

Importance sampling is a widely used technique to reduce the variance of a Monte Carlo estimator by an appropriate change of measure. In this work, we study importance sam- pling in the framework of diffusion process and consider the change…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-03-28 Carsten Hartmann , Christof Schütte , Marcus Weber , Wei Zhang

In this paper, we consider an importance sampling problem for a certain rare-event simulations involving the behavior of a diffusion process pertaining to a chain of distributed systems with random perturbations. We also assume that the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-08-26 Getachew K. Befekadu

Solving decision problems in complex, stochastic environments is often achieved by estimating the expected outcome of decisions via Monte Carlo sampling. However, sampling may overlook rare, but important events, which can severely impact…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-16 Lachlan Gibson , Marcus Hoerger , Dirk Kroese

Numerical resolution of high-dimensional nonlinear PDEs remains a huge challenge due to the curse of dimensionality. Starting from the weak formulation of the Lawson-Euler scheme, this paper proposes a stochastic particle method (SPM) by…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-02-11 Zhengyang Lei , Sihong Shao , Yunfeng Xiong

This paper is devoted to a system of stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) that have a slow component driven by fractional Brownian motion (fBm) with the Hurst parameter $H >1/2$ and a fast component driven by fast-varying…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-11-12 Bin Pei , Yuzuru Inahama , Yong Xu

We develop an instanton approach to the non-equilibrium dynamics in one-dimensional random environments. The long time behavior is controlled by rare fluctuations of the disorder potential and, accordingly, by the tail of the distribution…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2009-10-31 A. V. Lopatin , V. M. Vinokur

Rare events in molecular dynamics are often related to noise-induced transitions between different macroscopic states (e.g., in protein folding). A common feature of these rare transitions is that they happen on timescales that are on…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-06 Carsten Hartmann , Annika Jöster , Christof Schütte , Alexander Sikorski , Marcus Weber

We introduce a variant of the Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm to address large-deviation statistics in stochastic hydrodynamics. Based on the path-integral approach to stochastic (partial) differential equations, our HMC algorithm…

Computational Physics · Physics 2019-10-29 G. Margazoglou , L. Biferale , R. Grauer , K. Jansen , D. Mesterházy , T. Rosenow , R. Tripiccione

We explore efficient estimation of statistical quantities, particularly rare event probabilities, for stochastic reaction networks. Consequently, we propose an importance sampling (IS) approach to improve the Monte Carlo (MC) estimator…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-03-12 Chiheb Ben Hammouda , Nadhir Ben Rached , Raúl Tempone , Sophia Wiechert

State-of-the-art methods for rare event simulation of non-Markovian models face practical or theoretical limits if observing the event of interest requires prior knowledge or information on the timed behavior of the system. In this paper,…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Gabriel Dengler , Carlos E. Budde , Laura Carnevali , Arnd Hartmanns

Importance sampling has been known as a powerful tool to reduce the variance of Monte Carlo estimator for rare event simulation. Based on the criterion of minimizing the variance of Monte Carlo estimator within a parametric family, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-02-11 Cheng-Der Fuh , Huei-Wen Teng , Ren-Her Wang

We present a class of diffusion-based algorithms to draw samples from high-dimensional probability distributions given their unnormalized densities. Ideally, our methods can transport samples from a Gaussian distribution to a specified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Anand Jerry George , Nicolas Macris