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This paper presents a hierarchical decision-making framework for autonomous systems operating under uncertainty, demonstrated through autonomous driving as a representative application. Surrounding agents are modeled using Hybrid Markov…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-19 Siyuan Li , Chengyuan Liu , Wen-Hua Chen

Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) has profoundly influenced reinforcement learning (RL) by integrating planning and learning in tasks requiring long-horizon reasoning, exemplified by the AlphaZero family of algorithms. Central to MCTS is the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Maximilian Weichart

This article presents a novel approach, named MCMP (Monte Carlo Motion Planning), to the problem of motion planning under uncertainty, i.e., to the problem of computing a low-cost path that fulfills probabilistic collision avoidance…

Robotics · Computer Science 2015-06-01 Lucas Janson , Edward Schmerling , Marco Pavone

Generating safe and non-conservative behaviors in dense, dynamic environments remains challenging for automated vehicles due to the stochastic nature of traffic participants' behaviors and their implicit interaction with the ego vehicle.…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-09-13 Tong Li , Lu Zhang , Sikang Liu , Shaojie Shen

Robustly predicting attention regions of interest for self-driving systems is crucial for driving safety but presents significant challenges due to the labor-intensive nature of obtaining large-scale attention labels and the domain gap…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-01-30 Mengshi Qi , Xiaoyang Bi , Pengfei Zhu , Huadong Ma

This research introduces two efficient methods to estimate the collision risk of planned trajectories in autonomous driving under uncertain driving conditions. Deterministic collision checks of planned trajectories are often inaccurate or…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-10-08 Marc Kaufeld , Johannes Betz

Urban intersections represent a complex environment for autonomous vehicles with many sources of uncertainty. The vehicle must plan in a stochastic environment with potentially rapid changes in driver behavior. Providing an efficient…

Robotics · Computer Science 2017-04-17 Maxime Bouton , Akansel Cosgun , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) has proven effective in solving decision-making problems in perfect information settings. However, its application to stochastic and imperfect information domains remains limited. This paper extends the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-12 Can Cömer , Jannis Blüml , Cedric Derstroff , Kristian Kersting

In this work, we consider the popular tree-based search strategy within the framework of reinforcement learning, the Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), in the context of infinite-horizon discounted cost Markov Decision Process (MDP). While…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-14 Devavrat Shah , Qiaomin Xie , Zhi Xu

We present a provably safe sampling-based motion planning algorithm for robotic systems affected by random disturbances of unknown distribution. We consider systems with linear or linearizable dynamics evolving in workspace with…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Ibon Gracia , Qi Heng Ho , Luca Laurenti , Morteza Lahijanian

Navigating unsignalized roundabouts in mixed-autonomy traffic presents significant challenges due to dense vehicle interactions, lane-changing complexities, and behavioral uncertainties of human-driven vehicles (HDVs). This paper proposes a…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-25 Zhihao Lin , Jianglin Lan , Shuo Liu , Zhen Tian , Dezong Zhao , Chongfeng Wei

Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is a widely-used strategy for online planning that combines Monte-Carlo sampling with forward tree search. Its success relies on the Upper Confidence bound for Trees (UCT) algorithm, an extension of the UCB…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Tuan Dam , Odalric-Ambrym Maillard , Emilie Kaufmann

Continuous optimization based motion planners require specifying a maneuver class before calculating the optimal trajectory for that class. In traffic, the intentions of other participants are often unclear, presenting multiple maneuver…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Ömer Şahin Taş , Philipp Heinrich Brusius , Christoph Stiller

In complex traffic environments, autonomous vehicles face multi-modal uncertainty about other agents' future behavior. To address this, recent advancements in learningbased motion predictors output multi-modal predictions. We present our…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-05-07 Mohamed-Khalil Bouzidi , Bojan Derajic , Daniel Goehring , Joerg Reichardt

Many current autonomous systems are being designed with a strong reliance on black box predictions from deep neural networks (DNNs). However, DNNs tend to be overconfident in predictions on unseen data and can give unpredictable results for…

Robotics · Computer Science 2019-03-04 Björn Lütjens , Michael Everett , Jonathan P. How

Real-time planning under uncertainty is critical for robots operating in complex dynamic environments. Consider, for example, an autonomous robot vehicle driving in dense, unregulated urban traffic of cars, motorcycles, buses, etc. The…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-08-10 Panpan Cai , David Hsu

A typical trajectory planner of autonomous driving commonly relies on predicting the future behavior of surrounding obstacles. Recently, deep learning technology has been widely adopted to design prediction models due to their impressive…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-07-29 Weitao Zhou , Zhong Cao , Yunkang Xu , Nanshan Deng , Xiaoyu Liu , Kun Jiang , Diange Yang

This paper presents a method for testing the decision making systems of autonomous vehicles. Our approach involves perturbing stochastic elements in the vehicle's environment until the vehicle is involved in a collision. Instead of applying…

Robotics · Computer Science 2019-02-07 Mark Koren , Saud Alsaif , Ritchie Lee , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Sequential decisions in volatile, high-stakes settings require more than maximizing expected return; they require principled uncertainty management. This paper presents the Uncertainty-Aware Markov Decision Process (UAMDP), a unified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-19 Michal Koren , Or Peretz , Tai Dinh , Philip S. Yu

Knowing and predicting dangerous factors within a scene are two key components during autonomous driving, especially in a crowded urban environment. To navigate safely in environments, risk assessment is needed to quantify and associate the…

Robotics · Computer Science 2019-09-19 Ming-Yuan Yu , Ram Vasudevan , Matthew Johnson-Roberson