Related papers: Lee-Carter method for forecasting mortality for Pe…
To forecast the time dynamics of an epidemic, we propose a discrete stochastic model that unifies and generalizes previous approaches to the subject. Viewing a given population of individuals or groups of individuals with given health state…
We propose a novel methodology for estimating the epidemiological parameters of a modified SIRD model (acronym of Susceptible, Infected, Recovered and Deceased individuals) and perform a short-term forecast of SARS-CoV-2 virus spread. We…
Accurate models of patient survival probabilities provide important information to clinicians prescribing care for life-threatening and terminal ailments. A recently developed class of models - known as individual survival distributions…
Chronic diseases are long-lasting conditions that require lifelong medical attention. Using big EMR data, we have developed early disease risk prediction models for five common chronic diseases: diabetes, hypertension, CKD, COPD, and…
Purpose: Prior event rate ratio (PERR) method was proposed to control for measured or unmeasured confounders in real-world evaluation of effectiveness and safety of medical treatments using electronic medical records data. A widely cited…
In low-resource settings where vital registration of death is not routine it is often of critical interest to determine and study the cause of death (COD) for individuals and the cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF) for populations.…
We contribute a general and flexible framework to estimate the size of a closed population in the presence of $K$ capture-recapture lists and heterogeneous capture probabilities. Our novel identifying strategy leverages the fact that it is…
Understanding cause-specific mortality rates is crucial for monitoring population health and designing public health interventions. Worldwide, two-thirds of deaths do not have a cause assigned. Verbal autopsy (VA) is a well-established tool…
The number of Covid-19 cases is increasing dramatically worldwide. Therefore, the availability of reliable forecasts for the number of cases in the coming days is of fundamental importance. We propose a simple statistical method for…
Survival analysis is a technique to predict the times of specific outcomes, and is widely used in predicting the outcomes for intensive care unit (ICU) trauma patients. Recently, deep learning models have drawn increasing attention in…
Diverse analysis approaches have been proposed to distinguish data missing due to death from nonresponse, and to summarize trajectories of longitudinal data truncated by death. We demonstrate how these analysis approaches arise from…
Mortality patterns at a subnational level or across subpopulations are often used to examine the health of a population. In small populations, however, death counts are erratic. To deal with this problem, demographers have proposed…
We study the modeling and forecasting of high-dimensional functional time series (HDFTS), which can be cross-sectionally correlated and temporally dependent. We introduce a decomposition of the HDFTS into two distinct components: a…
This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…
We investigate state-level age-specific mortality trends based on the United States Mortality Database (USMDB) published by the Human Mortality Database. In tandem with looking at the longevity experience across the 51 states, we also…
In this work, we discuss the SIR epidemiological model and different variations of it applied to the propagation of the COVID-19 pandemia; we employ the data of the state of Guanajuato and of Mexico. We present some considerations that can…
A study of changes in the transmission of a disease, in particular, a new disease like COVID-19, requires very flexible models which can capture, among others, the effects of non-pharmacological and pharmacological measures, changes in…
This article describes a method to estimate the mortality rate ratio R from current status data with duration in a chronic condition in case the general mortality of the overall population is known. Apart from the general mortality, the…
Birth-death processes (BDPs) are continuous-time Markov chains that track the number of "particles" in a system over time. While widely used in population biology, genetics and ecology, statistical inference of the instantaneous particle…
Background: Suicide remains a major public health concern worldwide, responsible for more than 700,000 deaths in 2021, accounting for approximately 1.1\% of all global deaths. While many high-income countries have reported declines in…